Issue # 5.2.2 “The Pac 12, Yes, That Pac 12, Dominates” (3/22)

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THREE TRADITIONAL PAC 12 TEAMS CRUSH OPPONENT
BamaG jumps to 1st but 6 others have better chance to win the pool

USC beats Kansas by 34; Game over w/3.8 sec left
Game over despite 3.8 seconds left

EL SEGUNDO,CA (smt) – Traditional Pac 10 teams #7W-Oregon, #11E-UCLA, and #6W-USC ran all over their opponents while added Pac 12 team (along with Utah) #5E-Colorado got beat handily by #4E-Florida St.  The Pac 12 got four of its 5 teams in the Sweet 16 while the mighty Big Ten (9 teams before First Four) is just left with #1E-Michigan, who had to turn a 5-point second half deficit into a comfortable victory.  Oregon (finally playing after winning the first round by forfeit) broke a 46-46 tie by scoring the last 10 points of the half and never let up against #2W-Iowa, UCLA scored 18 straight points and led by as many as 26 in their win over #14-Abilene Christian, and in a game you had to see to believe, USC scored the last 11 points of the first half and then built as much as a 35-point lead over Oral Rob…, oh wait, over Norfolk St, oh wait, it was #3W-Kansas.  Kansas who had never lost a tournament game by more than 18, got routed by 34.  It was such a shock, the timekeeper left and didn’t even run down the last 3.8 seconds, leaving it to the refs to call mercy and end the game.

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Issue # 4.2.1 “Sister Jean to Sweet 16” (3/21)

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3 DOUBLE DIGIT SEEDS + RAMBLERS MAKE SWEET 16
License to ILL remains in 1st but lost champ Illinois

Sister Jean

DREAMING THROUGH AN UPSET, CA (smt)- So this was the morning I was going to sleep in, after working most weekends the past month, to get some good REM sleep.  I mean, #1MW-Illinois was the first game.  So if my phone was buzzing, I didn’t hear it.  Woke up and saw #1MW-Illinois was upset by fellow Illinois-team #8MW-Loyola Chicago.  And not really close at all, never letting the Illini get closer than 7 in the second half.  Sister Jean apparently gave a pre-game speech and magic happened.  The Ramblers were a top 10 team by statistics, which no one believed, and thus made an 8 seed.   They now get #12MW-Oregon St who withheld several rallies by #4MW-Oklahoma St to keep the Pac 12 perfect (6-0, 7-0 including First Four).  Elite 8?  We’ll see.

Two other double-digits seeds advanced with #11MW-Syracuse nearly blowing a late 9 point lead to beat #3MW-West Virginia (battle of the 900 win coaches) and #15S-Oral Roberts overcoming an 11-point deficit with under 10 minutes left to stun #7S-Florida.  Oral Roberts becomes just the second #15 seed in the Sweet 16 (Florida Gulf Coast ’13).  #10MW-Rutgers nearly joined them but blew a 9-point lead with under 5 minutes left as #2MW-Houston scored the last 7 points of the game (making just one shot, 5 points on free throws) in losing by 3.  Rutgers did the “prevent defense” which took them out of their rhythm, trying to hold the ball before the shot clock ran out, scoring just two points in the final 4:55.

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Issue # 3.1.2 “Pac 12 Perfect” (3/20)

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DIFFERENT OHIO PREVAILS, FIRST UNCONTESTED
License to ILL is 1 of 3 to go 14-2 to lead pool with 52 points

#15 ACU upsets #3 Texas

TORRANCE TAX TIME, CA (smt)- With huge pressure in the final seconds, #13W-Ohio not only hit the front end of the one-and-one, but both free throws twice as those four points were the margin in a 62-58 upset over defending champion #4W-Virginia.  The Cavs, who only flew into Indianapolis yesterday (just in time to take the two COVID-19 tests) led by 7 but were then outscored 14-2.  #14E-Abilene Christian, who was only was eligible for the tourney in ’18 and made it in ’19, forced 23 #3E-Texas turnovers and hit two free throws with two seconds left to prevail 53-52.  Texas was the first Big 12 team to lose (Big 12 went 6-1) had an early second-half 9 point lead but then were outscored 18-4.  While the Big 12 had a blemish, the Pac 12 ended the 1st Round a perfect 5-0 (6-0 if you include the First Four).  #11E-UCLA led wire-to-wire to upset #6E-BYU (I guess the NCAA won’t have to switch Sat/Sun games now), and of course, their 73 points had to be one higher than their cross-town rival #6W-USC, who won easily as well.

Uncontested or a 2-0 win

The big news though was that #10W-VCU had to withdraw from the tourney due to multiple positive tests and gave #7W-Oregon a free pass to the 2nd Round.  It gave 128 entries who picked the Ducks a stress-free evening.  Along with the disappointment, VCU does not know how early they can send the players back home to their families yet.

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Easy Two

Well, the 128 of you who picked #7W-Oregon just got an easy two points, as their game against #10W-VCU tonight (the last of the evening) was cancelled (declared a “no contest”) due to multiple positives on the VCU contingent of players, coaches, and staff. The Ducks advance and become the 4th Pac 12 team to reach the 2nd Round (UCLA plays tonight). Apparently, there was too much uncertainty how much of the spread there was to declare five players healthy enough to play. Local health authorities drive the decision.

On the NCAA site it shows as 2-0 win by Oregon while ESPN shows “Uncontested” with no score.

Well, after the early 8 games today, License to ILL, Mr Wizard, and Dagger are tied for first with 40 pts (20-4) while Go Beach! is last with 20 pts (10-16). All 8 favorites have won today.

Issue # 2.1.1 “Oral Robs Buckeyes” (3/19)

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SIX UPSETS, THREE OVERTIMES, MADNESS IS BACK!
After a long 2-years, pool back with 2nd most entries ever

15 seed Oral Roberts shocks 2 seed Ohio St

WORK FROM HOME, CA (smt)- #2S-Ohio St was playing one of the best free-throw shooting teams in #15S-Oral Roberts and that was the difference.  Up by two with a one-and-one, the Buckeyes missed (9/18 for the game) allowing Oral Roberts to tie with a couple of free throws (at the time 9/10) to send the game to overtime.  The Golden Eagles jumped to a six-point and lead and held on as Ohio St had a great open look to tie but missed.  Oral Roberts is just the 9th #15 seed to beat a #2, the first since ’16 when Middle Tenn beat Michigan St.  It was not the only upset as #13S-North Texas beat (essentially) host #4S-Purdue in overtime, #12MW-Oregon St, #9S-Wisconsin, and #11MW-Syracuse breezed to victories over #5MW-Tenn, #8-UNC (giving coach Roy Williams his first 1st Round loss ever (29-1); UNC’s last 1st Round loss was in ’99 (17 in a row)), and #6MW-San Diego St, respectively.  #10MW-Rutgers held on in their first appearance since ’91 (and first win since ’83).

UNC had won 17 straight 1st Round games

#7S-Florida blew a late six-point lead, missed 2 free throws to seal the game and had to instead battle and win in overtime.  #3S-Arkansas (though #14S-Colgate did jump to a 33-19 lead but allowed the next 19 points), #1MW-Illinois, #1S-Baylor, #2MW-Houston, and #3MW-West Virginia won easily.  #6S-Texas Tech,  #8MW-Loyola Chicago (welcome back 101-year old Sister Jean!), and #5S-Villanova posted double-digit wins.  #4MW-Oklahoma St held off #13MW-Liberty.

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Admin Picks!

Laugh or cry, we have submitted and paid for our picks. Below are my two entries. The first in reference to the 26.2 mile marathon as this is our 26th year. And my second is in awe of the incredible The Mandalorian Star Wars show gave us Baby Yoda… but where did he go to?

The Fabone Marathon

Where is Grogu

(Update 3/19/21 7:51 am PDT): David’s picks, his nickname of 26 years:

The Mighty Mobelfakta

Madness Begins

For the win… just short. #11aW-Wichita St’s buzzer beater shot hit the front of the rim (but why a 3 point if down by 1?) giving #11bW-Drake its 26th win, tying #1W-Gonzaga. Wichita St blew a second-half 12 point lead, a theme for the night. #16bE-Texas Southern rallied from a second-half 10 point deficit to win by 8. #11bE-UCLA rallied from a second-half 11 point deficit (down by 14 in the first half and by 6 with under 4 minutes left) to shock #11aE-Michigan St in overtime. #16aW-Norfolk St blew a second half 19-point lead but… rallied from their own 6-point deficit to squeak out a one-point win over #16bW-Appalachian St (who missed their first 19 3-point attempts (0/18 3PT but 8/8 FT in first half)). Norfolk St snapped a 3-game MEAC losing streak in the First Four (previous 3 lost by NC A&T) as the MEAC improves to 4-7. UCLA escaped from losing back-to-back First Four games. A great way to start after not having a March Madness game in the past 710 days.

We have 129 entries thus far which is close to our record-breaking pace in 2017 (178) but will likely fall between 155 and 170 entries. We typically have around 100 people and we are at 77, so hopefully at least 23 more before the 9 am PDT deadline.

In the 11th HWCI First Four for Charity contest (17 entries), Mike M anticipated close games for each (by 1 point) to win with a 3-1 record and low 14 point differential. Four were 3-1 and four were 0-4 (Eric F last with 50 pt diff). This was the third time no one went 4-0 (10 contests, last year was just pick the champ). Mike W actually picked two game exactly (Norfolk St by 1 and UCLA by 6) to finish 2nd (20 pt diff). 6 picked Texas Southern, 5 picked Drake, 7 picked Norfolk St, and 6 picked UCLA. All underdogs (by our picks) won.

First Tourney Game in 710 Days

Tipoff! The First Four has tipped off with #16bE-Mount St. Mary’s taking a 10 point halftime lead over #16aE-Texas Southern in front of around 500 fans (and no fake piped in noise on truTV) in Bloomington (the first Opening Round or First Four game not played in Dayton). I like the truTV (lower quality but you can take screenshots, unlike the March Madness app) and their break message – “truTV will return… unless the world ends or something” is hilarious!

We got 17 entries for our free 11th HWCI First Four for Charity contest, the 4th lowest total, but will still raise at least $54 towards the Center for Disaster (CDP) Philanthropy COVID-19 Response Fund thanks other fellow pool entrants who chipped in.

We got just 15 entries for the 24-hour period between Wed 9 am to Thu 9 am PDT so I have scrunched that period of time so that it can sync back up to what would be the final 24 hour push before the deadline. Below shows the 92 entries we have received thus far at Hour 66 and it is the 2nd highest total behind our record-breaking year in 2017. We’ll see if that trend holds up though.

At Hour 66, 2nd Most Entries Received Thus Far

Outta Here!

We got the first COVID-19 casualty but it wasn’t a team (who all reported they were good Saturday night to be selected for the tournament and for the tourney teams, all reported good by the 4 pm PDT deadline today) who will go home, but six referees. So, sorry Louisville who was the first on the waiting list. #6E-BYU also won’t go home as the NCAA will swap the Midwest and East Sweet 16 dates so that BYU won’t have to play on Sunday, as per their religious principles. But first, BYU has to win 2 games this weekend. This will reduce the East rest period to just 4 days which is tenuous since a positive COVID-19 can play havoc on the 7 days of negative testing requirement for contact traced players.

We have 35 entries thus far (Enter Now!), which is our 4th highest at this point in time (55 in 2017) and we do get one extra day (deadline 9 am PDT Friday, instead of Thursday). It’ll be interesting to see if people modify their picks based on Thursday’s First Four results or who #3W-Kansas or #4W-Virginia, both who withdrew from their conference tournament due to COVID-19, bring to their first game (Virginia won’t fly in until Friday and then quickly need Friday & Saturday negative tests in Indianapolis). Can you imagine if those teams both get a COVID-19 hiccup, that would mean #1W-Gonzaga’s biggest challenge could be just #5W-Creigton in the Sweet 16.

Issue # 1.0.1 “The Indy 68”

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Sunday, March 14, 2021  **HELP support Center for Disaster Philanthropy COVID-19 Fund (deadline Thu 4:00 pm PDT **)

BIG TEN GETS 4 OF TOP 8 SPOTS, ZAGS #1 OVERALL
After a long year, our 26th year hopes to offer a distraction

CAL POLY POMONA VAC SHOT #1, CA (smt)- After the March Sadness of 2020, where the NCAA along with all the sports leagues cancelled their seasons abruptly due to the rising COVID-19 pandemic, March Madness will try again this year, with health protocols and tournament procedures in place to enable completion of the tournament.  Soccer showed with the successful summer completions of  NWSL’s Challenge Cup and the MLS is Back tournament (which was the basis of our 11th HWCI soccer pool) in a location bubble that sports and the COVID-19 can coexist.  Going outside a bubble can lead to issues but the NCAA completed more than 80% of their scheduled games (the NFL 100%) and now all teams will descend into the Indianapolis greater area bubble. 

The Big Ten got a conference record 9 teams in, including 4 of the top 8 spots but unbeaten Gonzaga (26-0) got the #1 overall seed in the West.  Yes, the region names remain the same even though all games will be played in the greater Indianapolis area.  Tip times and locations were not announced during the selection show (which started ten minutes late as the Big Ten final went into overtime but took just 27 minutes to reveal the entire bracket) as those came out later.  Baylor got the #1 seed in the South while Illinois and Michigan got #1s in the Midwest and East.  The other Big Ten teams in the top 8 were #2S-Ohio St and #2W-Iowa.  SEC tourney winner #2E-Alabama and AAC tourney winner #2MW-Houston were the other #2 seeds. 

The top 41 ranked teams in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) made the tourney but so did NET70 #11bE-Michigan St while NET42 Penn St did not.  #11bW-Drake, as the final team in, has the Ivy League to thank, as with them not playing this year due to COVID-19, that allowed one more at-large bid (37) than usual.  Saturday’s upsets with #12E-Georgetown winning the Big East (were just 9-12 going into the tourney) and #12MW-Oregon St winning the Pac 12 (14-12 going into the tourney) knocked out Louisville and Colorado St, who along with St. Louis and Ole Miss, become the four alternates (in that order) if any tournament team has to withdraw by Tuesday evening.  #14S-Colgate played just 15 games but are 14-1 with a 13-game win streak.  Three teams played 30 games. 

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11th HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity (Due 4 pm PDT Thursday)

Support the Center for Disaster Philanthropy COVID-19 Response Fund

While you decide who will win the tourney, for the 11th year I’m doing the HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity, where I will donate $2 per entry to a charity (and if we get more than 25 responses, I’ll chip in an additional $25), this year to the Center for Disaster (CDP) Philanthropy COVID-19 Response Fund, which supports preparedness, containment efforts, response and recovery activities for those affected by COVID-19 and for the responders and has already distributed more than $21 million to 137 organizations in the U.S. and abroad.  With the virus still roaring across the world with different variants, this will be the 2nd straight year donating to a COVID-19 fund. This First Four for Charity is free and you just have to submit (you can comment on this post to enter, email, post to Facebook, tweet @HWCI_Pools) who the four First Four winners (played Thursday this year) will be and by what point margin. For example: Norfolk by 3, Drake by 2, Mt St Mary’s by 9, and UCLA by 1. The four games are Appalachian St vs Norfolk St, Drake vs Wichita St, Texas Southern vs Mt St Mary’s, and UCLA vs Michigan St.  Get your entry by 4 pm PDT Thursday.  As a bonus, in the end, if we top our record of 178 entries this year, I’ll donate an additional $25.  Also, invite your friends and people can enter (since it’s free) this charity contest but not our main pool. Last year, we set a record with $325 donated to Direct Relief COVID-19 Response Fund.

My picks: Norfolk St by 5, Wichita St by 7, Texas Southern by 3, and UCLA by 2.

Uncontested

ESPN will display “Uncontested” for games won by forfeit, giving us a possible sign of things to come in the tournament if teams can’t field five (yes, just 5) healthy players. Kansas, Virginia, and NC A&T had to withdraw from their conference tournaments due to positive test(s) just as Duke did earlier. The opponent advances (no word on if both teams have to withdraw) to the next round as usual. The First Four starts Thursday (rather than Tuesday) to allow for any positive test to work through its cycle (minimum 7 days of negative testing) which may allow Kansas, et al to field full strength teams by the time they play Friday or Saturday. NC A&T comes from the MEAC (one-bid league typically in the First Four) so despite being ranked #1 in the tournament, they won’t get an at-large bid like Kansas and Virginia. Even worse, with the NIT going from 32 to 16 teams for this year, there is no guarantee NC A&T will get an at-large invite to the tournament (normally they would’ve as regular season champ if they didn’t win the tourney).

So, write letters to your champion pick to stay safe, follow protocols, and be smart to avoid any chance of a positive test. Because if #1 Gonzaga tests positive next week, the #16 seed will get to play a #11/#12 seed alternate team in their first round game.

IEEE & Rutgers Again (Duke Out?)

So more than a year ago, I was excited that Rutgers was slated to be making the tournament for the first time in our pool era (ensuring at least one new team has appeared every year of our pool). Not only that, but it’s walking distance from the hotel we stay when we visit IEEE headquarters (the largest professional engineering society with over 400,000 members) in Piscataway, NJ. So, today, it seems Rutgers’ final conference win (after an embarrassing loss to Nebraska) has punched them through as one of at least 9 teams from the Big Ten.

Yes, so after a year of COVID-19 disruptions, loss of life (we hope everyone is doing okay and condolences for any loss), and coping, the NCAA tournament is back… moved to Indiana (Bloomington, West Lafayette, and Final Four host Indianapolis) for travel and safety concerns. And fans will be able to attend, at no more than 25% capacity. And our pool, the 26th (again), will be back. The NCAA has outlined that the bracket won’t be re-seeded or changed 48 hours after Selection Sunday, which means if your team can’t play due to COVID-19, they forfeit that game and the opponent advances to the next round (no-contest rule). We also get an extra day, as the proper 64 won’t start until Friday morning (First Four is Thursday). Now if both teams can’t play, don’t know… best mascot?

While several teams and the entire Ivy League canceled their seasons due to COVID-19, COVID-19 may just have knocked Duke out of the tourney for the first time since 1995, our first year of the pool. After getting above .500, they needed a strong run in the ACC tournament to secure an at-large bid. That won’t happen after withdrawing from the ACC tournament due a positive test (conspiracy theorists will say Duke will be an alternate team, then one tourney team will withdraw within 48 hours of the bracket and Duke will be back in…).

More to come!

Issue # 25.6 “25 Years: The Prizes”

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Wednesday, April 22, 2020  **HAPPY 50th EARTH DAY**
[ 1-Entries | 2-Teams  | 3-Confs  | 4-Charities  | 5-Payments ]

25 YEARS:  $23,650 HAVE BEEN WON BY  88 PEOPLE
Bob G is all-time earner with $1,120  but Robinson C and Darryn B are only two-time champs

The Winners

SAFER-AT-HOME W/REQUIRED FACE COVERING, CA (smt)- While a lot of American citizens will receive up to $1200 from the Federal government (and the rich getting some as well), a good number of us middle class folks won’t, and so we hope to win in the pool (not this year though).  While our largest pot was $1780, what was the largest prize an individual could win?  So here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time on the various HWCI NCAA prizes.

Prize Distribution

As stated in the last issue, 100% of each entry fee (including ours) goes into prizes.  Always has, always will.  So if there are 100 entries, then there will be $1,000 doled out.  I started doing an update on prizes but started getting into how intricate the payments worked and when I was done, wrote more than 1,900 words, so this was split up (Payments and Prizes).  So we’ve had 2,365 total entries over 25 years which means we have doled out $23,650 ($940.60 avg). 

While we started off with just 3 prizes in ’95 (1st/2nd/3rd) we have expanded over the years to as many as 8 prizes in ’17 (1st-7th, Bonus).  We added a 4th place prize in ’98 if we got 25 or more entries and Scott H (1 year/1 entry, 1 prize/$20 total winnings) won the first 4th place prize ($20).  We added a $40 Bonus Prize in ’03 and Scott T (25/42, 5/$630) won the first Bonus.  We added a 5th place prize in ’08 if we got 100 or more entries and Jeff H (16/16, 3/$340) won the first 5th place prize ($60).  We added a 6th place prize in ’11 if we got 125 or more entries and Charles D (1 0/28, 1/$60) won the first 4th place prize ($60) with his 2nd entry.   We added a 7th place prize in ’17 if we got 165 or more but have only hit that once (’17).  Alex K (3/4, 1/$60) won the first 7th place prize ($60).

We never thought the pool would be as big as it today which is why the 5th place prize never really crossed our minds until we hit the magic 100 entry milestone.  So while there were 75 entries in between 4th and 5th (25:100), we quickly added another prize 25 entries later (100:125).  When we jumped 29 entries from 149 to 178, it was so big that another prize seemed warranted, though we were hesitant.  But we decided to add the 7th place prize to get the top 7 prizes back up to over 4% of the total entries (7/165 4.2%).  We may not add an 8th until we hit 200 (8/200 4%) but we shall see.  We have dipped below that 165 entry mark for the last two years.  That “4%” has been keeping an average of 75% of the entries still alive after the first weekend which is good.  We don’t want too few top prize spots that too many entries are eliminated and skip the Sweet 16 but we want some stress and mortality.  We do have outliers such as the upset-heavy ’18 pool where 51.9% of the 156 entries were eliminated (’cause a lot of favorites lost including #1 Virginia losing to #16 UMBC) and the mostly chalk ’09 pool where just 7.0% of the 114 entries were eliminated.

There have been 136 total prizes won by 96 different entries (88 people).  A quite healthy 24.1% (88/365) of all people have won something which I’m quite proud of because I like spreading the wealth and no one person has dominated.  Each person is allowed to enter up to 3 times.  Scott T has won the most times with 5 prizes ($630) including winning the pool in ’02.  He has submitted 42 total entries over 25 years.  His first entry has won 4 times (25 yrs, 4/$540), tying David F (25/26, 4/$490) for the most wins for an entry.  Including Scott T, a total of 7 people have won on at least two different entries.  Eric F is the only person to win on 3 different entries (1st entry in ’14, 2nd in ’17, and 3rd in ’19; 9/15, 3/$620).  Blakely H (10/28, 2/$315) is the only person to win on his/her 3rd entry twice.  Mike W (4/12, 1/$170) and Ron E (12/28, 1/$320) are the only others to win on his/her 3rd entry.  Dual and triple entries are quite common but no one has won a prize twice in the same year.  Yet.

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Issue # 25.5 “25 Years: The Payments”

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 
[ 1-Entries | 2-Teams  | 3-Confs  | 4-Charities ]

25 YEARS:  ONLINE PAYMENTS RULE TODAY
Cash, check, and even money orders were how we got our money in the beginning

1995 to 2020 Inflation

SAFER-AT-HOME W/FACE COVERING, CA (smt)- With unemployment claims at record levels due to the effects of COVID-19, ten dollars is something to save now rather than spend on a really, cool betting pool.   While $10 in 1995 is now worth almost $17 ($16.97) in today’s dollars, our entry fee has never gone up.  Or think of it this way, the entry fee back in 1995 would be less than $6 ($5.90) today.  So you are getting more bang for you buck with each passing year.  What has been going up is the number of entries, and thus, the challenge of collecting all that money.  I the beginning there was just cash which would be handed to Andy F or David F and we had just 12 people to worry about in ’95.  But with 111 people like last year?  How do we do that?  So here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time on the various HWCI NCAA payments.

Unlike a lot of other paid tournament pools out there, there is no administrative fee, free entry by the admins, or kickbacks taken by David or I, despite the vast number of hours working on the pool (and David funding to run the server our pool is run on).  100% of each entry fee (including ours) goes into prizes.  Always has, always will.  Like I said in the previous issue, any tips or “extra” people try to sneak in as “thanks”, I put right into the First Four for Charity donation.

So if there are 100 entries, then there will be $1,000 doled out.  Now, every year, there are always stragglers and regulars that pay late or sometimes miss (when I get too lazy to remind again), but I always cover so there will be $1,000 to give out regardless if I’ve collected it all by the end of the tournament.  Most of these are my dear longtime friends who I think I’ll see soon to collect but family and work get in the way.  A lot have given up and gone the online payment or check way but there are a few I’ll have to remind at the next BBQ. 

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