[Scott's Pool Updates]

Monday, March 22, 2021
Issue # 5.2.2 "The Pac 12, Yes, That Pac 12, Dominates"
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BamaG jumps to 1st but 6 others have better chance to win the pool

USC beats Kansas by 34; Game over w/3.8 sec leftEL SEGUNDO,CA (smt) - Traditional Pac 10 teams #7W-Oregon, #11E-UCLA, and #6W-USC ran all over their opponents while added Pac 12 team (along with Utah) #5E-Colorado got beat handily by #4E-Florida St.  The Pac 12 got four of its 5 teams in the Sweet 16 while the mighty Big Ten (9 teams before First Four) is just left with #1E-Michigan, who had to turn a 5-point second half deficit into a comfortable victory.  Oregon (finally playing after winning the first round by forfeit) broke a 46-46 tie by scoring the last 10 points of the half and never let up against #2W-Iowa, UCLA scored 18 straight points and led by as many as 26 in their win over #14-Abilene Christian, and in a game you had to see to believe, USC scored the last 11 points of the first half and then built as much as a 35-point lead over Oral Rob..., oh wait, over Norfolk St, oh wait, it was #3W-Kansas.  Kansas who had never lost a tournament game by more than 18, got routed by 34.  It was such a shock, the timekeeper left and didn't even run down the last 3.8 seconds, leaving it to the refs to call mercy and end the game.

There were other games as #1W-Gonzaga (still undefeated at 28-0) broke open a 28-28 tie game with an 18-6 run to end the half, #2E-Alabama stomped #10E-Maryland (another Big Ten casualty), and #5W-Creigton easily took care of #13W-Ohio (not Ohio St).  The Big East, SEC, and ACC each put two teams in the Sweet 16.  Just four top seeds won today and just 7 of the 16 are #1-#4 seeds.

In the pool, BamaG and Eggman (21st-Tied, 68) got 7 of 8 correct, with BamaG taking over the lead with 77 points.  Overall, Eggman got 10 Sweet 16 teams while Dagger (156th-T, 52) got just two.  It's worse.  Dagger set a new all-time low with two (previously 3 by GoBay and Hendo in '02) and tied the record with zero today (6 times previously, last in '18).  Cloak (136th-T, 56) and Dagger can't get more than 60 points, 17 less than our leader.  Who can get the most points?  It's Mr. & Mrs. Dreamboat (7th-T, 72) with a max of 152 and it's also the reason he has the best chance to win the pool at 19.6% (everyone else less than 9%) and 63.1% to finish in the top 7 (everyone else less than 40%).  But first... who is still alive?

Six entries can thank helping us hit 165 total entries and triggering the 7th place prize.  These six can only win 7th if things work out.  Of the 165 entries, 57 were eliminated (34.5%, which is the highest since 51.9% in '17) and just 48 can win the pool.  The high percentage is due to the fact just 7 of the top 16 teams are still alive.  Pride of Troy is tied for 11th (71) but can't win the pool while KennyGUpsetSpectaculr is tied for 147th (54) but can still win the pool.  BamaG 2 is tied for 34th (66) but is eliminated while Shake N' Bake is tied for 162nd (48) but can still finish 4th.

Okay, back to the possibilities, 9 have at least a 5% chance to win the pool while 8 have at least a 25% chance to win the pool.  Of the tiniest of possibilities (pun intended), Tiny Prancers (27th-T, 67) has a 1 in 32,768 chance to win 7th.  One.  And it probably is just a tie as well only to lose the tiebreaker.

The Sweet 16 doesn't start until Saturday (not Thursday) and sometime this week I'll post the Prize Distribution and the Bonus Prize (which is looking more like going to the total points contest since no one picked the Pac 12 with the most wins (though 4 other conferences could pass them), not even Pac Attack (17th-T, 69)).

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   Tids & Bits -  in the first round, a record 20.3 wins were recorded (previous low, 20.6 in '01), thanks to a record 5 teams seeded #12-16 winning... in the second round, the 7.0 wins was the lowest since 6.9 in '00... Three lost Iowa as their champ and two lost Kansas... 24 picked Oregon, 54 USC, 44 Creighton, and just 11 UCLA, despite the heavy So Cal pool entrants... five have lost all four Final Four teams while 21 have all four... four have 7 of 8 Elite 8 teams alive while Cloak only has one... Dagger also lost a high 8 teams in his Sweet 16 on Sat/Sun while TWA (151st-T, 53) lost 3 Final Four teams the past two days... in a wild first half, 102 points were scored between Oregon and Iowa (56-46)... Iowa's Luka Garza scored 36 pts in the loss... Oklahoma actually had one more made field goal (29 vs 28) and shot better than Gonzaga (50.0% to 49.1%), the Zags lowest FG percentage this season... Zags made 23/26 free throws... Alabama made 16 of 33 threes... UCLA is the 5th First Four team to make the Sweet 16... never saw a "flop warning" before but it happened in the Creighton-Ohio game... Pac 12 teams USC (making their first Sweet 16 since '07) and Oregon face each other in the Sweet 16, unlikely since they were #6 and #7 seeds... Bankers Fieldhouse hosted 3 games today, all blowouts (Oregon, UCLA, Alabama)... Michigan won by 8, but the others were double-digit blowouts (14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 34)...

How am I still alive?  Oh, yeah, a homer who picked UCLA and USC to Sweet 16 against better judgment...

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