Monthly Archives: March 2019

Issue # 9.4.1 “Buzzer Beater”

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Saturday, March 30, 2019 

MISTAKE COSTS ZAGS; HEAVYWEIGHT FIGHT WON BY VIRGINIA
Carseroni is one of 11 to get both games and jumps to 4 point lead; Just 7 can win pool

Zags' Perkins technical foul

HOME/LABCORP, LOS ALAMITOS, CA (smt)- After falling behind 69-62 with 52 seconds left, #1W-Gonzaga got within two at 71-69 before Josh Perkins made the accidental mistake heard around the world with 11 seconds left when his hand knocked the inbound player’s hand meaning it was a 2-shot technical foul plus #3W-Texas Tech got to keep the ball.  The resulting four free throws gave the Red Riders their first Final Four ever in their 75-69 upset of the Zags.  It was a harsh penalty but it’s there to prevent intentional delay tactics which this wasn’t.  Texas Tech hit their last six free throws and the best defense held off the best offense as the Zags shot just 42.4% and had 16 turnovers.

The second half of the #1S-Virginia-#3S-Purdue game had everything a fan would want with clutch shots, clutch rebounds, a buzzer beater, and a mano y mano matchup between the Cavs’ Kyle Guy and the Boilermakers’ Carsen Edwards. Guy hit 3 threes to start the second half in helping build a 45-37 lead but then Edwards caught fire hitting 6 of 8 three pointers and 24 points in a 32-22 run to put Purdue up by 2 with 1:11 left (Guy had 10 of those 22 points).  But Purdue’s Ryan Cline missed a free throw leaving the game at 70-67 and Purdue smartly fouled before Guy or anyone else could take a three with 5 seconds left.  The second free throw was missed and a long rebound was won by Virginia in the back court and a great pass up to Mamadi Diakite in the arc was put in at the buzzer sending the game into overtime tied at 70.  The overtime was tight as Guy was held to just two late free throws and Edwards had just a jumper (finished with 42 points and 10 threes) and then missed a three with 7 seconds left down 76-75.  The Cavs hit their final four throws to win 80-75.  So surprised that the clutch three specialist from the last game, Ryan Cline, didn’t get a chance to shoot a three late in overtime.  Just six of 58 games have been one possession games (9 if you just include regulation) and 37 of 58 have been double-digit blowouts.  

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Issue # 8.3.2 “Tigers Shoot the Threes”

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Friday, March 29, 2019 

UNC FIRST #1 TO GO DOWN, DUKE SURVIVES AGAIN
ChuckPersonCellBlock holds on to lead while just 18 can win the pool

VT Ahmed Hill just misses

HOME/CALIFORNIA SCIENCE CENTER, CA (smt)- After #3E-LSU went on a 13-0 run to cut #2E-Michigan St.’s lead to four, MSU went on a 16-5 run to break the game back open for a 80-63 victory.  MSU hit 13 of 32 three-pointers while LSU will now try to find another coach with Will Wade still suspended.  After #1MW-UNC got within six, #5MW-Auburn hit five straight three pointers as part of a 16-3 run to break the game open in their 97-80 rout of the Tar Heels.  With the Tigers hitting threes and at one point were just 2 of 10 from the free throw land, it’s a wonder why UNC did not try to foul instead of letting the Tigers launch three after three (17 of 37 overall).  One thing about teams who win often such as UNC is that they don’t know how to play from behind.  Down by 10 with 7 minutes left and the ball, UNC took 10-20 seconds each possession and made poor shot choices (including a very long 3).  UNC didn’t start fouling until it was under 3:30 and down by 11 and to Auburn’s credit, they did hit six in a row but still finished under 50% (8 of 17).

#1E-Duke survived another nail-biter, 75-73, with #4E-Virginia Tech as the Hokies missed two threes and then an easy layup for the tie as the buzzer sounded.  It seemed like no one told VT’s Ahmed Hill that the refs put 0.5 seconds back on the clock (so 1.1 left) as he seemed to jump and just tip it with two hands near the basket instead of grabbing it for a more controlled put back.  It was a great play and also good to see VT didn’t try for the game-winning three as most teams would do and tried to get the easy game-tying bucket.  Duke shot well, hitting 55.4% from the field.  #2MW-Kentucky also barely survived #3MW-Houston took a 58-55 lead after being down by 13 early but the Wildcats scored the last 7 points in winning 62-58.  Just six of 56 games have been one possession games (8 if you just include regulation) and 37 of 56 have been double-digit blowouts.  

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Issue # 7.3.1 “Ones and Threes”

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Thursday, March 28, 2019 

ONE VS THREE IN BOTH WEST AND SOUTH
ChuckPersonCellBlock leads by two while 99 entries are still alive

Tennessee last second "foul"

HOME, CA (smt)- #1W-Gonzaga held #4W-Florida St to just two points in the last 4:11 to expand a scant four point lead (60-56) to a 72-58 victory while #1S-Virginia held #12S-Oregon to no field goals in the last 5:43 to turn a 45-42 deficit into a 53-49 win.  The Cavs actually shot worse (35.7%) than the Ducks (37.8%) but pulled out the win after Oregon scored more points in their 23-12 run than in the first half (22).  #3W-Texas Tech held #2W-Michigan to just 16 first-half points en route to Wolverine-record tourney low 44 for the game in their 63-44 victory.  Michigan missed their first 18 three-point attempts (finished 1 of 19) and shot just 32.7% from the field. 

#2S-Tennessee who blew a large lead (25 points) and needed overtime to win in the 2nd round saw their fortunes reverse, as they rallied from a large deficit (18 points) but lost in overtime to #3S-Purdue, 99-94.  Both teams shot as well or better from the field than the free throw line (Purdue 54.0% FG, 48.4% FT; Tennessee 50.0% FG, 50.0% FT) so this game could’ve been won easily by either team if they just hit their free throws (Purdue missed 17 including two front ends of a one-and-one and were at one point 3 of 13; Tennessee missed 12).  Tennessee had an 82-80 lead but with 1.7 seconds left they “fouled” (Purdue player may have kicked out but if you lean into the player, the ref may call it, ticky-tack as it was) on a 3-point attempt and Purdue only made 2 of 3 to send the game to OT.  Tennessee lived too much on the edge blowing a 16-point lead to #15S-Colgate and the aforementioned 25-point lead to #10S-Iowa.  Purdue did have Ryan Cline who not only hit four 3-pointers in the last five and a half minutes, he hit fadeaways and shots the defender knew he was going to take, a la Stephen Curry… but did it with class.  A joy to watch even though I picked Tennessee.

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Issue # 6.2.3 “We’ll Pay You in Silver” (Bonus Prize & Prize Distribution)

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Recent Rumors

Tuesday, March 26, 2019 

TOP SIX AND BONUS WILL WIN $1,620 POT
20 of 23 eliminated entries eligible for Bonus in our Silver Anniversary

Center Road

GOLETA, CA (smt)- With all four #1s, #2s, #3s and two #4s and a #5 and #12 in the Sweet 16, the sum seed total of 49 is the lowest since seeding began.  #1W-Gonzaga and #1MW-UNC have closed out games strongly while #1E-Duke needed some luck and non-whistles and #1S-Virginia trailed #16S-Gardner-Webb by 14 at one point.  Beleaguered conference Pac 12 has its #12S-Oregon in the mix while the ACC (5), SEC (4), and the Big Ten (3) continue to dominate.

With the mostly chalk Sweet 16, one entry (Center Road) around the world actually has a perfect bracket, and he didn’t even know it!  I use this sometimes in my statistics class showing the 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 odds of picking a perfect bracket or if you do some weighting of seeds, maybe get it down to 1 in 67,582,737,423.  Still virtually impossible.  How has our group done in 25 years?  No one has gone a perfect first round with Air Fabone 23 (Scott T) going 31-1 in 2017.  With Honey Badger (Scott D) going 16-0 this year, he became the first to have a perfect Round 2.  What the future lie?  Van&Sam (Van P) in 2007 was able to 8-0 in the Sweet 16, 4-0 in the Elite 8, and 2-0 for the Final Four.  But she missed the champion (Florida beat Ohio St)!  Unfortunately, Center Road was not eligible for Warren Buffet’s million dollar for life Sweet 16 challenge!

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Issue # 5.2.2 “Chalk + Oregon”

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Sunday, March 24, 2019 

DUKE, TENNESSEE SURVIVE; OREGON JOINS FUN
Buckeye Mike leads by one while Honey Badger goes 16-0 for Round

UCF Dawkins Tip

CERRITOS/GOLETA, CA (smt)- #2S-Tennessee blew a 25-point first half lead (44-19) and needed overtime to defeat #10S-Iowa, 83-77.  Iowa also had to rally from 4 points down with under a minute left to send the game into overtime at 71 all.  #9E-Central Florida nearly made a layup and then tantalizingly watched the follow-on tip by Aubrey Dawkins roll around the rim and then out in falling to #1E-Duke, 77-76.  UCF’s Tacko Fall had foul trouble playing just 25 minutes but UCF did benefit from a generous call late that gave them a late four-point lead (and subsequently blew an alley-oop that would’ve put them up 6).  After watching and seeing it either probably did hit the rim or was inconclusive (resetting the shot clock where UCF scored), CBS later produced two great replays clearly showing the ball missed the rim (one above that showed it banked and missed the rim and a slo-mo second view that showed the ball never changed direction, thus didn’t hit the rim).  But while Duke was robbed there, they probably did get the benefit of some rough play and maybe an offensive foul that wasn’t called after that.  And with the game on the line, Zion missed a game-tying free throw that was put back in by Duke for that final lead with 11.8 seconds left. 

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Issue # 4.2.1 “Chalk + Auburn”

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Saturday, March 23, 2019 

FAVORITES ADVANCE ALONG WITH RED HOT AUBURN
Slamjam51 3 takes over 1st place as 8 are perfect today

LSU's Waters for the win

CYRPESS COSTCO/CERRITOS, CA (smt)- Surprising SEC tournament champion #5MW-Auburn continued its hot run in routing #4MW-Kansas to advance to the Sweet 16 with 7 favorites.  #3E-LSU blew a 15-point second half lead and trailed by 3 before Tremont Waters drove for a layup with 1.6 seconds left to break a 67-67 tie.  #2MW-Kentucky struggled against #7MW-Wofford in winning by six but the other six (#2W-Michigan, #4W-Florida St, #1W-Gonzaga, #2E-Michigan St, and #3S-Purdue) all won by at least 12 points.  That means 26 of 40 games were blowouts and just 4 of 40 were one possession games.  Yawn. 

There were great performances, more than I remember from another tournament with #12W-Murray St’s Ja Morant excelling with 28 points in the loss, Purdue’s Carsen Edwards scoring an absurd 42 points, and the Zags’ Brandon Clarke scoring 36 points and blocking 5 shots.  One star who failed to produce was Wofford’s Fletcher Magee who after setting the career record for 3s with 509 in the last game, just needed four to tie Steph Curry’s single-season record of 162.  But he instead set the record for most missed threes without a make, going 0-for-12.  And his demeanor is the same as Curry’s, arrogant and just putting up 3s late despite teammate Nathan Hoover hitting 4-of-5 threes (Curry’s selfish and dumb threes (which of course he missed) late against Cleveland is the only reason Lebron has a ring in Cleveland)).

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Issue # 3.1.2 “ZOT! ZOT! ZOT!”

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Friday, March 22, 2019 
Issue # 3.1.2 “ZOT! ZOT! ZOT!“

ANTEATERS SHOCK AMONGST 8 UPSETS
5 tied for first as three go 15-1 despite 8 upsets

UC Irvine Anteaters

GOLETA/CERRITOS, CA (smt)- The lone local team, #13S-UC Irvine, rallied with a 17-4 run to put away #4S-Kansas St to reach the Round of 32.  UCI was just one of 8 upsets on the day with #12S-Oregon, #9S-Oklahoma, #9MW-Washington (and their relentless defense), and #9E-Central Florida (with great name and player Tacko Fall) winning comfortably and #10S-Iowa (over hometown crowd #7S-Ciincy), #12E-Liberty, and #11MW-Ohio St pulled out close wins.  #1 seeds struggled with infamous #1S-Viriginia going down 30-16 to #16S-Gardner-Webb, but the difference from last year to this year is that De’Anndre Hunter wasn’t injured and scored 23 points in helping rally from a 5-point halftime deficit with a 25-5 run to start the 2nd half.  #1MW-UNC also was down 5 at the half to #16MW-Iona but broke from halftime on a 25-7 run to win easily.  #1E-Duke fell behind by 7 early to #16E-North Dakota St before scoring 54 points in the 2nd half.  #3W-Texas Tech, #6W-Buffalo, #3MW-Houston, and #4E-Virginia Tech won easily but #2S-Tennessee trailed 52-50 but held on to win by 7. 

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Issue # 2.1.1 “Darlings Mostly Disappoint”

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Thursday, March 21, 2019 
A BIG TEN GOES 5-0 WHILE BIG EAST DOWN TO ONE
Our 25th year saw an increase to 162 entries from 1l3 people

GOLETA, CA (smt)- Potential Cinderella darlings #14E-Yale, #12MW-New Mexico St, #11E-Belmont, and #11S-St. Mary’s all faltered leaving head coachless #3E-LSU, #5MW-Auburn, #6E-Maryland, and the defending champ #6S-Villanova heading into the 2nd Round.  Yale sure did look like they were looking forward to Belmont in the next round and forgot they had to win the first one.  New Mexico St bypassed an easy layup to tie the match, missed 2 of 3 free throws with 1.7 seconds left when down by 2, and the airballed a wide open three at the buzzer in losing by one.  Auburn was tying to give the game away blowing a late 13 point lead and committing six turnovers in the last nine minutes or so and missing front ends of one-and-one free throws.  The only team that fulfilled people’s upset brackets was #12W-Murray St led by Ja Morant’s triple double (17 pts-16 ast-12 reb), the first in tournament play since ’12 in a rout of #5W-Marquette.  There were a few other upsets as #10E-Minnesota, #10W-Florida, and #9W-Baylor picked up wins.  Still upset at their placement, #2E-Michigan St trailed #15E-Bradley by one at halftime before pulling away.  #4W-Florida St, #7MW-Wofford, and #3S-Purdue ended strong while #4MW-Kansas, #2MW-Kentucky (winning the Wildcats vs Wildcats battle), #1W-Gonzaga, and #2W-Michgan rolled to easy victories. 

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Admin Picks!

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Well, here we go. We have 143 entries thus far with less than 5 hours to go. Below are the admin picks, and yes, we pay our own $10 per entry. Note, the links will eventually have the time/date stamp removed when I have time but I was working until 1 am today. BTW, this link also will allow you to view your own bracket if you forgot who you picked.

David F: The Mighty Mobelfakta (http://www.hwci.com/ncaa/2019/picks.asp?entries=The+Mighty+Mobelfakta+-+3-21-2019+2-23)

Scott T (1st): Silver Fabone (http://www.hwci.com/ncaa/2019/picks.asp?entries=Silver+Fabone+-+3-21-2019+5-45)

Scott T (2nd): Gekijou no Walkure (http://www.hwci.com/ncaa/2019/picks.asp?entries=Gekijou+no+Walkure+-+3-21-2019+6-23)

Issue # 1.0.1 “The Silver Age of Brackets”

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Monday, March 18, 2019  **HELP support Boys & Girls Clubs of America (deadline Tue 3:40 pm PDT **

ACC NABS 3 #1 SEEDS, DUKE #1 OVERALL
Our 25th year offers a consistent experience, unlike the new NCAA Evaluation Tool

Seed List

CERRITOS/SANTA BARBARA, CA (smt)- The Big Ten got 8 teams in but it was the ACC who was king as #1E-Duke (with sensation Zion (Williamson)), #1S-Virginia, and #1MW-North Carolina (record 17th #1 seed) got the top three #1 seeds.  #1W-Gonzaga, despite losing to #11S-St. Mary’s in the WCC final, got the last #1 seed.  The Cavs are back as a #1 seed a year after becoming the first team to lose to a #16 seed (no UMBC in sight this year).  The top 32 ranked teams in the new NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) made the tourney but so did NET73 St. John’s while NET33 NC State did not.  #12S-Oregon’s upset of #9MW-Washington in the Pac 12 final likely sent UNC Greensboro (60NET) home.  The ACC and SEC got 7 teams in with the Big 12 (6), AAC (4), Big East (4), and Pac 12 (3) getting at least three teams.  The mid-majors managed to snag seven at-large bids (including the AAC’s 3) and almost a eighth (the aforementioned UNCG) in a nice change of pace.  Somehow #9S-Oklahoma (7-12) and #11MW-Ohio St. (9-13) made the tourney with horrible losing conference records.  No sign of UCLA or USC but the #13S-Anteaters of UC-Irvine made it to be our only local team, their 2nd appearance after making it in 2015 also as a 13 seed and nearly knocking off Louisville.  #2E-Michigan St and #2W-Michigan (with the Spartans beating the Wolverines 3 times in 15 days) were both shipped to Hartford but Michigan St got Duke’s region due to the fact the regional (Washington DC) is much closer than their normal position as 5th seed in the West (Anaheim).  #7S-Cincy gets to play in the same state (Columbus) with #4MW-Kansas hoping to make the regional in Kansas City.  Streaking MW-Auburn who beat #2S-Tennessee for their first SEC title in 34 years only earned a 5 seed.

Wow, the Selection show brought back memories of a simpler time when all picks were done in just over a half-hour, none of this NBA analyst nonsense of last year,  none of the leaked brackets of the past, none of the dragging out the picks over an hour.   And back on CBS where it belongs.

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9th HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity (Due 3:40 pm PDT Tuesday)

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Support the Boys & Girls Clubs of America

While you decide who will win the tourney, for the 9th year I’m doing the HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity, where I will donate $2 per entry to a charity, this year to the Boys & Girls Clubs of America, which helps enable all young people, especially those who need us most, to reach their full potential as productive, caring, responsible citizens.  This is one of the highest rated charities and since I have a son and daughter, this seems to fit.  This First Four for Charity is free and you just have to submit (you can comment on this post to enter, email, post to Facebook, tweet @HWCI_Pools) who the four First Four winners will be and by what point margin. For example: Prairie View by 8, Belmont by 12, NC Central by 1, and Arizona St by 2.   The four games are Fairleigh Dickinson vs Prairie View A&M, Belmont vs Temple, North Carolina Central vs North Dakota St, and Arizona St vs St. John’s.  Get your entry by 3:40 pm PDT Tuesday.  As a bonus, in the end, if we top our record of 178 entries this year, I’ll donate an additional $25.  Also, invite your friends and people can enter (since it’s free) this charity contest but not our main pool.

Our Silver Anniversary!

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Our 25th HWCI NCAA pool is almost here.  Haven’t followed anything but I’m sure USC and UCLA are the teams to beat!  Art and detailed pool stats may be delayed as I lost a USB drive in June which means most of the past 2 year pool stats are gone and I have to re-create.  But it doesn’t affect this year’s pool, just my obsession with pool stats.  So, who will join the Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (Big South champs) into making their 1st tourney?  Abilene Christian (Southland) and Grand Canyon (WAC) will try to win their tournament final today.