Issue # 6.2.3 “Is Eight Enough?” (3/22) [Prize Distribution & Bonus]


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Wednesday, March 22, 2023 

Including Bonus, 165 entries can still win money

HOME, CA (smt) – Just nine top four seeds made the Sweet 16 including #15S-Princeton.  The West has #2-4 (losing #1 Kansas) while the South has #1 Arkansas but a #5, #6, and #15.  The Midwest has #1-3 and #5 while the East has #3 and #4 joined by #7 and #9.  #1E-Purdue became the second team to lose to a #16 seed (FDU) while #2S-Arizona lost in the first round.  But you can’t be worse than POTUS who had Arizona as his champ and Virginia over Alabama in Sweet 16.

There have been no overtime games (there were 5 last year) and very few one possession wins (7, though 3 more than last year after the 2nd Round) in the 48 proper 64 games played thus far.  More than half (25 of 48) have been double-digit wins. 

7 of 8 Big Ten teams are already out and the ACC barely squeaked by getting a team (Miami (FL)) in the Sweet 16 every year since 1979.  It’s the SEC dominating going 9-4 (not including First Four loss) as 11 conferences sent a team to the Sweet 16.  Overall #1 Alabama has won each game by 21 and 22 points while only two other teams, #1MW-Houston and #4W-UConn, have won both games by double-digits.

Our 28th year saw a record 194 entries from 126 people.  Of the 126, 22 entered twice (down 5 from last year) and a record 23 entered three times (up 5).  But thanks to all, we hit the magic number of 190 entries (we’ve now set 8th place when >=190 entries, 9th place when >=215 entries, and 10th place when >=240 entries; all keep top placements at around 4.2% each milestone hit) which means we will have 8th place prize for the first time.  We will have nine money spots (top 8 plus Bonus) and we have $1,940 to divvy out. The top prize will be $735, $85 more than last year and $45 more than our previous high of $690 in 2017.  The prize distribution is listed below and as always, all fee money goes into prizes. What’s the Bonus? Read on

As it has been for the past 18 years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. We have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 8 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below…

Bonus1 – Winningest Conference

When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering what the heck “Winningest Conference(s): ?? | Wins: #” meant. And thus, subliminally, you were also picking which conference would get the most wins in the tournament and how many wins that conference would get via your direct picks. Neat, eh? So that output, which in my case (February Fabone), says “Winningest Conference(s): Big 12, Big East | Wins: 12“, means that by the way I picked my bracket (and please laugh), the Big 12 and Big East (regardless of which Big 12 and Big East teams win) will get the most wins with 12. The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. First Four wins do not count 
2. The top 8 finishers are 
not eligible (so no double-dipping)
3. Ties broken by championship final score total (Total Pts in Final tiebreaker)
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split
5. If 2 (or more) conferences tie for the most wins, both (or all) conferences must have been picked correctly
6. If entry has 2 or more conferences tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g. entry picks Pac 12 and Big 12 with 11 wins a piece and the Big 12 ends up winning the most games with 11, then contestant wins)

And, the Bonus Prize is worth $40, which is four years worth of losing brackets. Last year, the ACC and Big 12 got the winningest conference with 13 wins each.  But if no one wins the Winningest Conference, then the Bonus2 takes effect.  See below…

Bonus2 – Total Points in Final

If no one wins the Bonus1, then a second Bonus opportunity takes effect. The entry closest to the “Total points in final” tiebreaker wins the $40. In order to reward better play, the tiebreaker is the higher placement in the final pool standings.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 8 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. “Closest” can be above or below actual total (if actual is 144, 143 & 145 are both 1 point away)
3. Ties broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split

Prize Breakdown

We are officially at 194 entries ($1,940). So, here is the official prize breakdown: 

     1st Place = $735.00
     2nd Place = $370.00
     3rd Place = $250.00
     4th Place = $185.00
     5th Place = $ 130.00
     6th Place = $ 95.00
     7th Place = $ 75.00
     8th Place = $ 60.00
     Bonus Prize = $ 40.00 

Bonus1 Prize Analysis

What this means is that of the 60 entries that were eliminated from the top 8 prizes, 31 of those entries are back into play!  With the Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, and SEC still in it, 137 of 194 entries still have a chance for Bonus1.  And 165 of 194 (85.1%) have a chance of either the top 8 or bonus. 

If you don’t have your bracket, then go to the “Your Picks” page and pick your nickname from the drop down box. Because of the First Four, what you see might change (since the ACC’s Pittsburgh and Pac 12’s Arizona St. won the First Four game you’d have to add your predicted Pitt/ASU wins to your total) so go to the Bonus page for your official picks. Remember that the First Four wins do not count in the Winningest Conference calculation (that is why the ACC only shows 4 wins and Pac-12 2 wins below where it really has 5 and 3, respectively). Right now, of the 11 conferences represented in the Sweet 16, 4 conferences have a chance to get or share the most number of wins:          

Conference Teams LeftCurrent WinsMax Possible Wins
Southeastern Conf (SEC)3918
Big East Conf3716
Big 12 Conf2714
Big Ten Conf1610
x-Atlantic Coast Conf (ACC)Pac-12 Conf14^6
x-West Coast Conf (WCC)137
x-Ivy League126
x-Conf USA126
x-American Athletic Conf (AAC)126
x-Mountain West Conf (MWC)126
x-Pac-12 Conf2^6
x-Eliminated from Most Winningest Conf
^-Pittsburgh and Arizona St wins in First Four do not count

Two SEC teams could face each other in the Final Four (Alabama, Tennessee) and two Big East teams could face each other in the Final Four (Xavier, UConn).  The Big 12, with a #1 (Kansas), a #2 (Texas), and two #3s (Baylor, Kansas St), led with 133 of 194 entries thinking they would be the winningest conference followed by the the SEC with 39, Big East 28, Big Ten 18, Pas-12 6, and ACC 1.  30 entries each picked the SEC with 13 wins (still possible). 

Below are the teams in the conferences that matter for the Bonus1.

Conf.   Teams Left (1st Rnd W-L, 2nd Rnd W-L)
-----   -------------------------------------
Big12   KANSAS ST, TEXAS (5-2, 2-3)
Big10   MICHIGAN ST (5-3, 1-4)

It’s much too much to go through all the possibilities with four rounds remaining. But, if you do have a chance, this will guide you to which team to root for based on the conference the team is in.

Here is the link to what everyone picked. If your nickname is in red, that means you’re eliminated from the top 8 prizes; if your conference is in red, you’re eliminated from the Bonus1. The eligibility for the Bonus2 won’t be discussed unless needed.

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   Tids & Bits – Gonzaga has made 8 straight Sweet 16s… Princeton will try to become the second #15 seed in the Elite 8 (1-9 – St. Peter’s last year)… Texas made the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008… while the Pac-12 hasn’t won a title since 1997 (Arizona), the Big Ten also is on a long drought, last winning in 2000 — which happens to Michigan St, the last Big Ten team standing… of the 9 top seeds, just UCLA (1995) and UConn (4 times) have won titles in our pool era; of the 7 lower seeds, Michigan St won in 2000 and Arkansas won in 1994, the year before we started this pool… Creighton was 22-for-22 shooting free throws against #3S-Baylor… we hopefully get another classic as #3W-Gonzaga and #2W-UCLA face each other again… Houston and Florida Atlantic each have 33 wins and just 3 losses…

Can West Coast represent?  Go Zags and Bruins..

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