Monday, December 12, 2022
Issue #8.2.3 "There Will Be Times When the Struggle Seems Impossible"
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First Semifinal - Lusail			Second Semifinal - Al Khor
ARG - La Albiceleste Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA)	CRO - Vatreni (Blazers) Hrvatski Nogometni Savez (HNS)		FRA - Les Blues Fédération Française de Football (FFF)	MAR - Ousud Al-atlas (The Atlas Lions) Fédérarion Royale Marocaine de Football (FRMF)
#3 | C1 | Group C Winners | 3-1-1 6th Semifinals ('30, '78, '86, '90, '14) C1: Lost #53 Saudi Arabia 1-2 C4: Beat #13 Mexico 2-0 C5: Beat #26 Poland 2-0 R16: Beat #38 2D-Australia 2-1 QF: Beat #8 1A-Netherlands 2-2 (4-3 PSO)	#12 | F4 | Group F Runners-Up | 1-0-4 3rd Semifinals ('98, '18) F1: Tied #22 Morocco 0-0 F4: Beat #41 Canada 4-1 F5: Tied #2 Belgium 0-0 R16: Beat #24 1E-Japan 1-1 (3-1 PSO) QF: Beat #1 1G-Brazil 1-1 (4-2 PSO)		#4 | D1 | Group D Winners | 4-1-0 7th Semifinals ('58, '82, '86, '98, '06, '18) D1: Beat #38 Australia 4-1 D4: Beat #10 Denmark 2-1 D6: Lost #30 Tunisia 0-1 R16: Beat #26 2C-Poland 3-1 QF: Beat #5 1B-England 2-1	#22 | F3 | Group F Winners | 3-0-2 1st Semifinals F1: Tied #12 Croatia 0-0 F3: Beat #1 Belgium 2-0 F6: Beat #41 Canada 2-1 R16: Beat #7 2E-Spain 0-0 (3-0 PSO) QF: Beat #9 1H-Portugal 1-0

CROATIA IS RANKED #12 IN THE WORLD, YOU KNOW
16 entries fighting for remaining 4 money spots; Bonus keeps another 69 entries with hope

FISHBAR IN MANHATTAN BEACH, CA (smt) -- 2F-Croatia has less wins in this WC than teams like 1E-Japan and 2D-Australia and yet, thanks to four draws, are a step away from their second straight final.  They are the #12 team in the world and yet are lumped with 1F-Morocco as impossible party crashers.  Ironically, CRO and MAR are the only 2 semifinalists who have not lost a match yet (1A-Netherlands is the only other team without an official loss (lost in PSO)).  CRO have beaten the #1  (1G-Brazil) and #2 (F1-Belgium) teams in the world, and in order to win their first WC, they will have to beat #3 1C-Argentina and then potentially #4 1D-France.  Their struggle is real though, as they have played 2 scoreless draws and 4 of their 6 goals were against F2-Canada.

MAR is ranked decently at #22 (not #53 like C2-Saudi Arabia who beat ARG), are on a 10-match unbeaten streak (last loss to 2B-USA), and have only conceded one goal (an own goal) but are still huge underdogs (9:1 to win the WC).  FRA (~1:1 to win WC) could have underestimated MAR but close relations (several players born in France play for Morocco as well as their coach; several MAR players play in FRA's Ligue 1; as well as MAR was once a colony of FRA) should make FRA more cautious than #1 BEL (lost 2-0), #7 Spain (lost 3-0 in penalty shootout), and #9 Portugal (lost 1-0) who were all ousted by this team.  Morocco has also bid many times to host the WC (losing in '94, '98, '06, '10, and '26) and maybe winning the WC could give them a boost (I mean, if tiny Qatar can host one...). 

As an aside, Morocco used to have the abbreviation MOR (used for the 1998 World Cup) but around 2000, it changed to its French name (Maroc) and the abbreviation became MAR.  Same for Spain, which is ESP but not for its Spanish name España, but for its French (Espagne).  English and French are traditional languages for FIFA (whose acronym is based on French title) but its official language list just included Arabic, Portuguese, and Russian (in addition to German and Spanish) in June 2022.

ARG has struggled, losing their first match to #53 KSA and then allowing 2D-Australia and 1A-Netherlands back into the match (leading 2-0 in both), the latter needing the PSO to advance.  One thing in ARG's favor is that they have won all 5 previous semifinal matches.  Lionel Messi has scored 4 goals (2 on PKs) and contributed 2 assists (including a sick no-look pass) but has also missed one PK.

FRA has struggled defensively as they have not had a clean sheet (the other 3 semifinalists have at least 2 shutouts) but have scored 11 goals, third-most in the tourney.  With several stars out due to injury, it seemed like it would be an impossible task to become the first defending champion to repeat since BRA in '62 but FRA opened up strong (4-1 over AUS) and led by 5 goals (including two braces) from Kylian Mbappe (also has 2 assists) and co-assist leader Antoine Griezmann (3), FRA passed their first true test against ENG to make their 7th semifinal (which they have won their last 3 semifinal matches).

16 entries can finish in the top 5 money spots.  Fernando B (Soccerbix) is already guaranteed at least 4th, leaving 4 money spots up for grabs.  With 109 entries, the breakdown of $1,090 will be:

• 1st place - $510  |  2nd place - $260  |  3rd place - $130  |  4th place - $90  |  5th place - $60  |  Bonus - $40

But for the 93 entries eliminated, hope may not be all lost.  There is the $40 Bonus.  This is the Winningest Region (analogous to Winningest Conference in our HWCI NCAA pools).   This means that 69 can still win the Bonus and 32 have been eliminated from Money and the Bonus.  Actual possible outcomes have been run after the quarterfinals but are grouped into 4 groups below.  After the semifinals, a list of every entry still alive will be shown in a table.  The way the $40 Bonus will  work is that when you picked your Round of 16 bracket, you subliminally were choosing which region (the 6 regions are:  UEFA (Europe), CONMEBOL (South America), AFC (Asia and Pacific), CAF (Africa), CONCACAF (North & Central America, Caribbean), and OFC (Oceania)) would do well in the knockout stage.  Whether you had eliminated Spain winning it all or France, it still meant you thought a European team would win the tournament (4 UEFA wins for this team).  I've tabulated everyone's picks and the result is now in the updated standings (last column). 

The rules for Bonus1 are:

1. Matches only include the 15 knockout stage matches (no 3rd place match) and wins include penalty shootout victories

2. The top 5 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

3. If 2 (or more) regions tie for most wins, both (or all) must have been picked correctly

4. If entry has 2 (or more) regions tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g., entry picks UEFA and CONMEBOL with 7 wins each and UEFA is the winningest region with 7 wins, then entry wins)

5. Ties are broken by total goals in 3rd place & final matches tiebreaker pick

6. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4.5 and 5.5 are both 0.5 goals away)

7. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

If no one wins this Bonus1, then a second Bonus (aka, Bonus2) opportunity will take effect (someone will have to win the $40!).   The only change to the Bonus2, because those with 0.5 are at a disadvantage, the total goals predicted will be doubled and include the two semifinal matches (4 matches total).  Thus, the entry closest to "Total goals in 3rd place and final matches" x 2 tiebreaker will win the $40 (thus, if you chose 3.5 goals as your tiebreaker (2 matches), your new goal total is 3.5 x 2 = 7 goals (4 matches)).  In order to reward better play, ties are broken by higher placement in final pool standings (this only applies for Bonus2).

1. Matches only include the two Semifinal matches, the 3rd Place match, and the Final match (4 matches)

2. The top 5 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

3. Total goals do not include penalty shootout goals (only regulation and Extra Time goals)

4. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4 and 6 are both 1 goal away)

5. Ties are broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings

6. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

We have played 12 Knockout Stage matches thus far with UEFA (Europe) winning 7  and no other confederation in play.  Thus, UEFA will be the Winningest Region with either 7, 8, 9, or 10 wins.  And since at least one eliminated entry has picked one of these four possible outcomes, someone will win Bonus1 and the $40 that goes with it (and thus, Bonus2 will not be used).

• UEFA with 7 wins - if MAR and CRO are in final (11 could win)

• UEFA with 8 wins - if MAR beats ARG or CRO beats FRA in final (19 could win)

• UEFA with 9 wins - if ARG beats MAR or FRA beats CRO in final (22 could win)

• UEFA with 10 wins - if CRO and FRA are in final (17 could win)

BTW, the only effect the 3rd place match will have is that it will be the first of 2 matches for the total goals tiebreaker.  People could be rooting either for a scoreless draw or lots of goals to be scored.  The standings will be updated only to show the current total goals value.