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Monday, November 28, 2022 Issue #4.1.3 "One Way Out" [|
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| Mini-Updates | Standings | Dailies: 25-26-27-28 ]
TWENTY-ONE TEAMS KNOW WHAT TO DO
TO MAKE R16
Four are tied for 1st with 20 points but next
four days can earn 16 points each day
MISTLETOE
WRAPPING IN CYPRESS,
CA (smt) -- Of the 21 teams who know what they need to do to guarantee
themselves in the Round of 16, only the B3-USA has
one way out
- win or be eliminated. No backing their way in like in 2002 or 2014.
No slim chance if they didn't win vs Algeria in 2010. 26 of 27 eligible
teams can make the Round of 16 (joining D1-France, G1-Brazil, and H1-Portugal)
with some help if necessary. USA gets no
help. No need to watch the D1-England-D4-Wales score. Doesn't
matter. Win and in.
Only 2 teams have been eliminated (host A1-Qatar and F2-Canada) and just three have qualified leaving an unusually high 27 teams still alive fighting for 13 spots. E3-Germany has the most difficult guarantee to make the Round of 16, and that is beating E2-Costa Rica by 8 or more goals... considering E1-Spain beat CRC 7-0, maybe possible (though CRC shocked E4-Japan 1-0)? Otherwise it's win and hope for a good result from JPNvsESP. WAL and C3-Mexico are in if they win their matches by 4 or more goals. ENG can lose by 3 goals and still qualify. All 6 teams that do not control their destiny still need to win for any chance of making the R16.
As for the matches themselves, 9 of 16 were shutouts (including 1 more scoreless draw). USA gave possession to ENG for the first part of the first half before controlling the rest of the match, but yet had to settle for a 0-0 draw, their second tie. B2-IR Iran scored two stoppage time goals (the latter the latest ever in WC history at 90'+11') to beat WAL 2-0. G2-Serbia had two first-half stoppage goals (1st time that has happened in WC) but G4-Cameroon rallied from two down to tie 3-3. H4-Korea Rep rallied from two goals down but H2-Ghana got the third to win 3-2. African teams (CAF) went 3-1-1 this round with A3-Senegal ending host QAT's hopes, 3-1, and F3-Morocco outplaying and shocking #2 F1-Belgium, 2-0.
D2-Australia stayed alive with a 1-0 win over D4-Tunisia as did C1-Argentina in beating MEX, 2-0. GER, who stayed alive thanks to JPN losing, got an 83' equalizer against ESP. The two AFC teams that shocked last round lost as C2-Saudi Arabia (who beat ARG) fell to C4-Poland 2-0 and JPN (who beat GER) lost to CRC, who had no shots in their last match, 1-0. In the only group match between two top ten teams, #4 FRA got by #10 D3-Denmark, 2-1. F4-Croatia routed CAN (who actually scored first), 4-1, to eliminate the CONCACAF qualifying winners while BRA and POR qualified with 1-0 (vs G3-Swiss) and 2-0 (vs H3-Uruguay) wins, respectively.
Warner L (Cicero (5th-Tied, 19 pts)) had some key observations which affected how USA approached each match:
Gareth Bale is sitting on a yellow card and he goes into Pulisic very seriously and this should have warranted the second yellow card for him - but no - about 5 minutes later Bale (who shouldn't have been there) is taken down for a PK of which he converts. This referee I hate to bad mouth - but this guy should be one of the refs that only does one match in a World Cup.
How many matches so far has had two yellow cards issued to the same team without warnings within the first 13 minutes of the match? -- he didn't understand how important these matches are... & there might have been a bias on his part....
Remarkable in USA vs England match NO YELLOW CARDS!!!
I guess we'll have to do it the hard way beat Iran on Tuesday
Luckily, USA survived the ENG match without any of their players picking up a second yellow. So with a full roster going into the IRN match, if you can't beat IRN (though they are ranked #20 and got off 21 shots vWAL while USA has only taken 16 total), you don't deserve to be in the knockout stage. No sense playing up to giants like ENG only to succumb to teams you should beat. Win and in. One way out!The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #hwciWC hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates. Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.
Ins & Outs - [32 Matches/9 Ties] - Goals: 81 (2.53/match) [Own: 0 (-), Subs: 18 (2-NED 90'+9, 3-SEN 65', 3-ENG 71', 3-ENG 90', 3-SEN 90'+13, 11-JPN 75', 11-JPN 83', 15-POR 80', 15-GHA 89', 17-IRN 90'+8, 18-QAT 78', 18-SEN 84', 24-ARG 87', 26-MAR 90'+2, 27-CRO 90'+4, 28-ESP 62', 28-GER 83', 29-CMR 63'), 90+/120+: 7 (2-NED +9, 3-SEN +13, 17-IRN +8, 17-IRN +11, 26-MAR +2, 27-CRO +4, 32-POR +3), Extra Time: 0 (-)]... Scoring First: 19-4-4 [5 Nil-Nil ties (8-ARGvKSA, 5-AUSvFRA, 11-GERvJPN, 27-CANvCRO)]... Leading at Half: 10-2-3 (17 ties; 8-ARG, 11-GER)... Shutout: 24 [1-QAT, 2-SEN, 6-DEN, 6-TUN, 7-MEX, 7-POL, 12-MAR, 12-CRO, 10-CRC, 9-CAN, 13-CMR, 14-URU, 14-KOR, 16-SRB, 17-WAL, 20-ENG, 20-USA, 21-TUN {2}, 22-KSA, 24-MEX {2}, 25-JPN, 26-BEL, 30-SUI, 32-URU {2}]... PK: 8/11 [1-ECU 16', 3-SEN 90'+9, 4-WAL 82', 8-ARG 10', 7-pol (s) 58', 11-GER 33', 10-ESP 31', 9-can (s) 11', 15-POR 65', 22-ksa (s) 45'+1, 32-POR 90'+3]... Extra Time: 0 [-]... PSO 0 (-/-) [-]... Red Card (GF/GA): 1 (17-WAL R 86' (0/2); 30-KOR Coach R 90'+11)... Multiple Goals: 11 [Valencia 2 (1-ECU), Saka 2 (3-ENG), Taremi 2 (3-SEN), Giroud 2 (5-FRA), Torres 2 (10-ESP), Richarlison 2 (16-BRA), Mbappe 2 (23-FRA), Kramaric 2 (27-CRO), Cho 2 (30-KOR), Mohammed 2 (30-GHA), Fernandes 2 (32-POR)]... Zero SOG (Shots): 6 [1-QAT (5), 10-CRC (0), 14-URU (10), 14-KOR (6), 16-SRB (4), 30-SUI (4)]... Goal Line Tech: 0 (-).. VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 24 [1-ECU xOff+{g-} 3', 4-ENG xFoul+{pk+IRN} 90'+10, 8-KSA xFoul+{pk+ARG} 6', 8-ARG xOff+{g-} 27', 6-TUN xHB= 90'+4, 7-MEX xFoul+{pk+POL} 54', 11-GER xHB{xPK}= 22', 11-JPN Foul{pk}= 31', 11-GER xOff+{g-} 45'+4, 9-BEL xHB+{pk+CAN} 8', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 13', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 38', 15-GHA Foul{pk}= 62', 17-IRN xOff+{g-} 15', 17-WAL Y-{+R} 84', 18-SEN xFoul{xPK}= 34', 19-ECU Off{xg}= 45'+4, 22-POL xFoul+{pk+KSA} 43', 26-MAR xOff+{g-} 45'+2, 28-GER xOff+{g-} 39', 29-CMR Off-{g+} 63', 30-GHA xHB{g}= 24', 31-BRA xOff+{g-} 64', 32-URU xHB+{pk+POR} 89']... 58%+ Poss (w/in contest): 4 [3-ENGvIRN (72) W, 8-ARGvKSA (64) L, 11-GERvJPN (65) L, 10-ESPvCRC (74) W]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 7 [5-FRA (22/7/4) W, 11-GER (25/9/1) L, 9-CAN (21/4/0) L, 16-BRA (24/10/2), 17-IRN (21/6/2), 23-FRA (21/6/2) {2} W, 30-KOR (21/6/2) L]... Breaks (>30 min): 0 [-]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF/SF/F/C): UEFA (13) 11-7-8, AFC (6) 4-7-1, CAF (5) 3-4-3, CONMEBOL (4) 4-2-2, CONCACAF (4) 1-4-3, OCEANIA (-)... Match Order of Play: RR: 1 | 3-2-4 | 8-6-7-5 | 12-11-10-9 | 13-14-15-16 | 17-18-19-20 | 21-22-23-24 | 25-26-27-28 | 29-30-31-32 | 35-36A-33-34B | 37-38D-39-40C | 41-42F-43-44E | 45-46H-47-48G | R16: 49-50 | 52-51 | 53-54 | 55-56 | QF: 58-57 | 60-59 | SF: 61 | 62 | 3rd: 63 | F: 64 ]...
Qualification (x-Advance, y-Group Winner, z-Elim): z-QAT (A) (19-NED D)... x-FRA (D) (W-23)... z-CAN (F) (27-L)... x-BRA (G) (31-W)... x-POR (H) (32-W)...
Sides 'N Kicks
- Only BRA, ARG, FRA, and ENG were picked
by everyone to make the Round of 16... Only TUN was not picked to make the
R16... TUNvAUS was picked to be tied the most (39) but AUS won... since we hit
over 100 entries, there will be a 5th place prize for the first time... my
jersey choices: 2010 USA Home, 2008 AUS Home, 2021 JPN 100th Anniversary, 2016 SVK Home
(close relations to SRB)... there have already been 24 VAR decisions in the
first 32 games (there were just 20 all of 2018)... #53 KSA also outplayed #26
POL outshooting them 16-8 (on goal 5-3) with 57% possession... in both matches,
FRA has 21 or more shots... KOR had 12 CKs vGHA... African teams went 3-1-1
after going 0-3-2... only
11% of teams who lose their first game make the Round of 16 (since field
expanded to 32 teams in 1998) while a win gets you in 84% of the time (59%
advance after drawing their first match)... the LA Galaxy are
hosting watch parties with the decisive USA-IRN match at
Tom's Watch Bar in LA... Kevin L (KevLo)
was inquiring about watch parties (Redondo Beach area) among us so we'll see -
it's a great idea... yes, this issue's title is the title from Star Wars: Andor Episode
10,
we'll see how long I can stick with the critically-acclaimed Andor
titles (also have great quotes from the show I could use as well)... there
are now 5 scoreless draws - there was just one all of 2018... if any teams
qualify for the Round of 16 after their 2nd match, entries won't receive the 3
points until after their group has finished (e.g., if KSA wins, they advance to
R16 but you will get the 3 points after their 3rd match win, lose, or draw)...
I'm sure some people are going to try to attend all 64 matches since all
stadiums are close by so it'll be interesting (with dual matches, you could
attend one half and drive and attend most of the 2nd half of the other game)...
there have been 17 ties at the half, all of them scoreless... MAR, POL, and BRA
have not allowed a goal yet... TUN, MEX, and URU have yet to score... a
multi-pronged protester
ran onto the field in the 51' of the PORvURU match with a rainbow flag and
"save Ukraine" Superman shirt and hopefully got tackled hard by security like we
see sometimes at LA Galaxy matches -- and USSF is
hot water for doctoring the Iran flag (allegedly to show support for the
women of Iran) in a brain-dead and selfish move without notifying its players
what was happening as they prepare for the big game... entries averaged 7.5 wins
for the second group of matches (8.7 for first 16 matches) for a total of 15.2
points (32 matches)... there is
$440 million in prize money (+$40m from 2018) with the winner getting $42m
(+$4m from 2018)... CMR had lost 8 straight WC matches before their draw with
SRB (2nd longest streak in WC history)... IRN's 90'+8 goal was the latest
game-winner in WC (1966+) and first goal (of 42 scored) outside the penalty box
at this WC... ECU's Enner Valencia has scored in six straight WC matches... ECU
outshot NED 13-2... USA got their first 0-0 draw ever (35 WC matches) and last
shutout of an UEFA team since 1950 - against ENG... ENG has the most 0-0 draws
(12) in WC history... CAN scored 68 seconds into the match, their first-ever WC
goal (76th team to do so (QAT was 75th))... CAN has lost all 5 WC matches but
not as bad as MEX's debut (lost first 9) or El Salvador's (still 0-6-0)... FRA
is first defending champ to make R16 since '06... FRA and NED have not lost in 9
straight WC matches...
On Friday, only SEN's win was picked by more than 19 entries (73); 19 picked IRN, 17 had ENG-USA draw, and only 6 had NED-ECU draw; Eggman was the only one to go 3-1 while 23 went 0-4; this left three at the top with 13 points (Cicero, Kankleiscious, and Walloon) with Markofthebeast and Meli tied for last with 6 pts... on Saturday, three of the heavy favorites won (POL by 99, ARG 90, and FRA 66) with the most split match (34 TUN-36 AUS-39 TIE (match picked most to draw)) going to AUS; 17 went 4-0 for the day while S Rod 2 went 0-4; CDOG and Kaneiscious (geez, painful to type this every time :-)) are tied for first with 16 pts with Markofthebeast and Meli still tied for last with 8 pts.... on Sunday, While 74 picked CRO, just 29 picked the ESP-GER draw, 13 CRC, and Party Brigade was the only one to pick MAR; 26 went 2-2 while 18 went 0-4; CDOG, DDubs, Kankleiscious, and The Gambler 1 are tied for first with 17 pts while Meli is now alone in last (8).... on Monday, The Gambler was the only one to get all 4 matches correct to jump into a tie for first with DDubs, Kankileiscious, and The Gambler 1 (also him) with 20 points; four went 0-4 as Chris 1, Markofthebeast, and Meli are tied for last with 10 pts; 107 picked BRA, 102 POR, 24 GHA, and 18 picked the CMR-SRB tie...
---
June 21, 1998 - Iran 2, USA 1...
Scott