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Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Issue 10.2.5 "Master and Padawan"

USA SURVIVES ENGLAND, NETHERLANDS SCORE IN EXTRA TIME
Either From the Pubs! or THE GAMBLER 1 will win the pool

Fivethirtyeight oddsEL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) [DAY 23] -- 1F-USA didn't have Megan Rapinoe due to a hamstring injury but her replacement and vet Christien Press scored in the 10' and battered vet Alex Morgan broke a 1-1 tie with a birthday goal in the 31' and that held up sending the Americans past 1D-England, 2-1, into their 5th WWC final.  ENG had more possession and played well but ENG had a brutal stretch from the 68' to 86' where Ellen White's game-tying goal was overturned by VAR (hairline offsides), an open tap in that was whiffed by White but then overturned by VAR into a PK as a foul (hairline contact to her leg), ENG continuing a tradition by missing a penalty kick (their 3rd straight miss), and then going down to 10 women after a second yellow to Millie Bright.  I guess ENG is just a semifinal team after all losing their 3rd straight semifinal ('15 WWC, '17 EURO). 

In a foul-marred match, at one time 2F-Sweden led in fouls 17 to 2 before it ended 24 to 14, the highlights were some world-class finger tip saves by both GKs.  For just the third time, a matched ended scoreless after regulation but in Extra Time, Jackie Groenen took a rocket of a strike from way outside that just got past the GK into the left corner in the 99' and match's only goal leading 1E-Netherlands to their first final.  Maybe SWE is a semifinal team as well losing their 3rd WWC semifinal (only won in '03).

While the USA is the master in that this is their 5th final, NED is much the padawan in that before 2015, they had never qualified for the WWC or Olympics (still haven't) yet in four years, they surprised and won the 2017 UEFA EURO and are now in the 2019 WWC final.  Will the USA teach NED more lessons and thrash them (as most odds are better than 2:1) or will NED rise up Vader-style, and overthrow the master?

3rd Place and FinalFrom the Pubs! is now in first with 125 pts with the THE GAMBLER 1 2nd (123).  The former wins the pool if USA wins and the latter wins the pool if NED wins.  If USA wins, UncleChimps (3rd-Tied, 120) and Futbol Fabone Dix (5th, 119) finish 2nd and 3rd.  If NED wins, From the Pubs! finishes 2nd and there's a tiebreaker for 3rd between UncleChimps and Tom J (3rd-T).  If the total goals from the 3rd place and Final matches is 6 or less, UncleChimps gets 3rd, otherwise Tom J gets 3rd.
   
If UNITED STATES beats NETHERLANDS in Final…

From the Pubs!
137
UncleChimps
132
Futbol Fabone Dix
131
Pazzo Americano
129
If NETHERLANDS beats UNITED STATES in Final…

THE GAMBLER 1
135
From the Pubs!
125
UncleChimps
120
Tie:
6.5
Wins 3rd if total goals is 6 or less
Tom J
120
Tie:
7.0
Wins 3rd if total goals is 7 or more

I'll be doing daily gameday updates on our Blog and re-posted on Twitter.  These updates will be every few days or so and will be emailed out.  Everyone can view their pick and bracket by clicking the "Pick" link in the standings next to their nickname or the picks page.  If you want to know who everyone is, the Who's Who in the Pool is now available.

   Ins 'n Outs -  Goals (50 Matches): 141 (2.82/match) <Own: 8 [2-NGAvNOR 37', 13-FRAvNOR 54', 15-KORvNGA 29', 17-BRAvAUS 66' (GW), 32-SCOvARG 79', 34-CMRvNZL 80', 35-SWEvUSA 50', 36-THAvCHI 48'], Subs: 12 [4-ESP 89', 10-NED 90'+2 (GW), 11-USA 85', 11-USA 90'+2 {2}, 12-SWE 90'+4, 18-ITA 71', 18-ITA {2} 81', 20-SCO 88', 29-JAM 49', 32-ARG 74', 33-NED 75' | 43-ITA 49'], 90'+: 8 [5-ITA +5 (GW), 10-NED +2 (GW), 11-USA +2, 12-SWE +4, 24-THA +1, 24-SWE +6 {2} {pk}, 31-ARG +4 (GT) {pk}, 34-CMR +5 (GW)], Extra Time: 2 [40-FRA 107' (GW), 50-NED 99' (GW)]>... Scoring First: 42-4-2 [2 Nil-Nil ties (8-ARGvJPN, 28-CHNvESP); 4-RSA:ESP 1:3, 5-AUS:ITA 1:2, 17-BRA:AUS 2:3, 48-GER:SWE 1:2]... Leading at Half: 24-3-2 [21 ties; 4-RSA:ESP (1:0) 1:3, 5- AUS:ITA (1:0) 1:2, 17-BRA:AUS (2:1) 2:3]... Shutout: 32 (1-KOR, 2-NGA, 3-CHN, 6-JAM, 8-ARG, 8-JPN, 9-CMR, 10-NZL, 11-THA, 12-CHI, 14-ESP, 15-KOR {2}, 17-RSA, 18-JAM {2}, 19-ARG {2}, 21-NZL {2}, 23-CHI {2}, 27-RSA {2}, 28-CHN {2}, 28-ESP {2}, 25-NGA {2}, 30-ITA, 31-JPN {2}, 35-SWE | 38-NGA {3}, 39-CMR {2}, 42-CAN, 43-CHN {3}, 45-NOR, 46-FRA, 47-ITA {2}, 50-SWE {2})... PK: 18/25 [4-ESP 69', 4-ESP 82' {2}, 5-aus (s) 22', 6-bra (s) 38', 7-ENG 14', 13-FRA 72', 17-BRA 27' {2}, 18-ITA 12' (retake), 19-eng (s) 28' {2}, 20-JPN 37', 23-usa (wl) 81', 24-SWE 96'+, 25-FRA 79' (retake) {2}, 26-NOR 4', 26-NOR 50' {2}, 30-BRA 74' {3}, 32-ARG 90'+4 (retake), 36-chi (xb) 86' | 38-GER 27', 41-USA 7' {2}, 41-USA 75' {3}, 42-can (s) 69', 44-NED 90', 45-eng (s) 83' {3}, 49-eng (s) 84' {4}]... PSO: 1 (5/7) [37-NOR:AUS 3.5 (4:1 {GGGG:rsG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 4 (0/3) [4-RSA 81' {2Y} (0/2), 25-NGA 75' {2Y} (0/1) | 37-AUS 104' {R} (0/0), 49-ENG 86' {2Y} (0/0)]... Multiples: 17 [Renard 2 (1-FRA), Hermoso 2 (4-ESP), Bonansea 2 (5-ITA), Cristiane 3 (6-BRA), Morgan 5 (11-USA), Mewis 2 (11-USA), Lavelle 2 (11-USA), Girelli 3 (18-ITA), Galli 2 (18-ITA), Miedema 2 (22-NED), Lloyd 2 (23-USA), Kerr 4 (29-AUS), White 2 (31-ENG), Nchout 2 (34-CMR) | Rapinoe 2 (40-USA), Martens 2 (44-NED), 46-Rapinoe 2 (46-USA) {2}]... Zero SOG (Shots): 4 [21-NZL (2), 23-CHI (1), 25-NGA (2), 28-CHN (1)]... Goal Line Tech: 2 [6-BRA 64' G, 16-CHN 42' NG]... VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 41 [1-FRA xOff+{g-} 27', 4-ESP xPK= 66', 4-ESP xPK+ 81', 5-ITA Off={xg} 9', 5-ITA xPK= 67', 5-ITA Off={xg} 81', 6-BRA PK= 37', 7-ENG xPK+ 12', 13-FRA xPK+ 70', 14-NGA xHB={g} 29', 17-AUS xPK= 21', 17-AUS Off-{g+} 66', 18-JAM xGK+{retake PK} 11', 19-ENG xPK+ 27', 23-USA xPK+ 79', 24-SWE xPK+ 90'+3, 25-FRA xPK+ 73', 25-NGA xGK+{retake PK} 76', 32-ARG xPK+ 86', 32-SCO xGK+{retake PK} 90'+2, 33-CAN PK- 1', 35-USA xOff={g} 50', 36-CHI xPK+ 83' | 37-AUS PK- 42', 37-AUS xPK= 88', 37-AUS RC= 104', 38-GER xOff={g} 20', 38-GER xPK+ 25', 39-ENG Off-{g+} 45'+4, 39-CMR xOff+{g-} 48', 39-ENG xPK= 76', 39-CMR RC-{Y} 90'+8, 40-FRA xF+{g-} 23', 40-BRA Off-{g+} 63', 40-BRA Off={xg} 87', 41-USA PK= 71', 42-CAN xPK+ 66', 42-SWE xOff+{PK-} 81', 48-GER Off={xPK=} 82', 49-ENG xOff-{g-} 68', 49-ENG xPK+ 79']... 63%+ Poss: 11 [4-ESPvRSA (72) W, 9-CANvCMR (65) W, 10-NEDvNZL (69) W, 11-USAvTHA (75) W, 12-SWEvCHI (64) W, 19-ENGvARG (64) W, 21-CANvNZL (70) W, 23-USAvCHI (68), 24-SWEvTHA (66) W, 25-FRAvNGA (69) W | 39-ENGvCMR (63) W]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 18 [1-FRAvKOR (21/8/4) W, 4-ESPvRSA (25/12/3) W, 11-USAvTHA (39/21/13) W, 12-SWEvCHI (25/7/2) W, 21-CANvNZL (22/6/2) W, 23-USAvCHI (26/9/3) {2} W, 24-SWEvTHA (34/15/5) {2} W, 25-FRAvNGA (22/4/1) {2} W, 26-KORvNOR (23/7/1) L, 27-GERvRSA (23/12/4) W, 28-ESPvCHN (24/9/0) {2} D, 34-CMRvNZL (22/7/2) W, 36-CHIvTHA (29/7/1{1 og}) W | 37-NORvAUS (27/8/1) D, 37-AUSvNOR (20/4/1) D, 43-CHNvITA (20/5/0) L, 46-FRAvUSA (20/5/1) L, 47-NEDvITA (21/9/2) W]... 7'+ Added Time (Clock): 7 [25-NGAvFRA 8' (99:58) {2H}, 35-SWEvUSA 7' (97:02) {2H}, 36-THAvCHI 7' (97:42) {2H} | 39-ENGvCMR 7' (99:47) {2H}, 41-ESPvUSA 7' (98:08) {2H}, 42-SWEvCAN 7' (98:51) {2H}, 49-ENGvUSA 7' (96:59) {2H}]    Regions (Tot/R16/QF/SF/F/C): UEFA (9/8/7/3/1) 29-13-3, AFC (5/3/-) 4-11-3, CAF (3/2/-) 2-9-0, Concacaf (3/2/1/1/1) 8-5-0, CONMEBOL (3/1/-) 3-5-2, OCEANIA (1/-) 0-3-0... Breaks: 7 [12-SWEvCHI (Lightning) 72' {40 min} | 47-ITAvNED (Heat) 30' {3:30}, 47-ITAvNED (Heat) 75' {2:30}, 48-GERvSWE (Heat) 32' {2:45}, 48-GERvSWE (Heat) 75' {2:00}, 49-ENGvUSA (Heat) 76' {1:15}, 50-SWEvNED (Injury) 120'+1 {5:25}]...

   Standings # W-L-D Pts (GD GF) [Fair Play]

   F USA 6 6-0-0 18 ( 21 24) [ -6]
   E NED 6 6-0-0 18 (  8 11) [ -4]
---
   D ENG 6 5-1-0 15 (  9 12) [ -7]
   F SWE 6 4-2-0 12 (  5 10) [ -6]

---
 5 B GER 5 4-1-0 12 (  8 10) [ -5],  6 A FRA 5 4-1-0 12 (  5  9) [ -5], 7 C ITA 5 3-2-0  9 (  5  9) [ -8],  8 A NOR 5 2-2-1  7 (  0  7) [ -5]
---
 9 C AUS 4 2-1-1  7 (  3  9) [ -6], 10 C BRA 4 2-2-0  6 (  2  7) [-11], 11 E CAN 4 2-2-0  6 (  1  4) [ -3], 12 B ESP 4 1-2-1  4 (  0  4) [ -2], 13 D JPN 4 1-2-1  4 ( -1  3) [ -5], 14 B CHN 4 1-2-1  4 ( -1  1) [ -5], 15 E CMR 4 1-3-0  3 ( -5  3) [ -8], 16 A NGA 4 1-3-0  3 ( -5  2) [-11]
---
17 F CHI 3 1-2-0  3 ( -3  2) [ -5], 18 D ARG 3 0-1-2  2 ( -1  3) [ -3], 19 D SCO 3 0-2-1  1 ( -2  5) [ -6], 20 E NZL 3 0-3-0  0 ( -4  1) [ -1], 21 A KOR 3 0-3-0  0 ( -7  1) [ -7], 22 B RSA 3 0-3-0  0 ( -7  1) [ -9], 23 C JAM 3 0-3-0  0 (-11  1) [ -4], 24 F THA 3 0-3-0  0 (-19  1) [ -5]

   Bits 'n Bobs -  Birthday girl Alex Morgan (USA) scored the game-winner but was fouled 4 more times (drawing both yellows on Millie Bright who was the 3rd woman sent off this tourney) with several times having trouble getting back up... 53,512 fans came out for the ENGvUSA match in Lyon and 48,452 more for the SWEvNED match... Press's goal snapped ENG's 381 minutes without allowing a goal... it took 4 more minutes, so ENG has scored in the first 19' 5 times... ENG has missed 3 of 4 PKs and 3 in a row... USA has not lost when scoring first in WWC history... Megan Rapinoe (USA) was nursing a hamstring... USA has won a record 11 straight WWC matches and 16 straight without a loss... USA scored within the first 13 minutes all six matches (12', 11', 3', 7', 5', now 10')... 62' SWE 17 to 2 on fouls... SWE's Kosovare Asllani committed 8 fouls (no cautions) and was fouled 7 times (2 drawing cautions) as SWE ended up outfouling NED 24 to 14.   1st WWC SF to go to extra time... NED 8 different goal scorers (11 goals)... Asllani suffered a nasty head injury in the 121' and had to carried off on a stretcher (120:50 to 126:15) - match ended 127:35... SWE lost their 3rd SF in 4 tries... NED have scored 6 of their 11 goals in 75' or later... NED has won 12 straight tourney matches (EURO '17, WWC '19)... in 2015, there was just one PSO... the USAMNT beat CUW 1-0, no, not 10-0, 1-0, in the Concacaf Gold Cup and plays JAM in the semis Wednesday night (which they won 2-1 in a match delayed by lightning)... 

On Tuesday, 34 picked USA.  On placement, all 34 had USA as 1F in the Final.  4 lost ENG in the final and 3 lost them as their champ.  The top 11 did not change leaving Tom J and UncleChimps tied for 1st with 120 pts.  ENG's loss eliminated Kona Coast Sliders 2 (27th-T, 102) and GetAdaMyPool (19th-T, 106) leaving 6 for the top 4 spots UncleChimps is guaranteed at least 4th and either Pazzo Americano (4th-T, 117), From the Pubs! (4th-T), or THE GAMBLER 1 (8th-T, 115) will win the pool.  Futbol Fabone Dix (3rd, 119) has a 75% chance at money and Tom J has a 50% chance at money but both no higher than 3rd.

On Wednesday, 5 picked NED.  On placement, all 5 had NED as 1E in the Final.  Pazzo Americano (6th, 117) lost SWE in final and now can only win 4th if USA wins the Cup.  No one was eliminated with NED's win.  From the Pubs! is now in first with 125 pts with the THE GAMBLER 1 2nd (123).  The former wins the pool if USA wins and the latter wins the pool if NED wins.  If USA wins, UncleChimps (3rd-Tied, 120) and Futbol Fabone Dix (5th, 119) finish 2nd and 3rd.  If NED wins, From the Pubs! finishes 2nd and there's a tiebreaker for 3rd between UncleChimps and Tom J (3rd-T).  If the total goals from the 3rd place and Final matches is 6 or less, UncleChimps gets 3rd, otherwise Tom J gets 3rd.

Do I finish one spot (5th) out of the money again??!...
Scott


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