[ HWCI World Cup Pool ]

Thursday, July 12, 2018 
Issue #8.2.4 "It's Not Coming Home" (After Semifinals)
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2018 World Cup Final - Luzhniki Stadium - Moscow
French National Team vs. Croatian National Team

FRA - France (Les Bleus)
Fédération Française de Football
CRO - Croatia (Vatreni)
Croatian Football Federation
#7 | C1 | Group C Winners | 5-0-1
3rd Finals ('98, '06)
 C1: Beat Australia 2-1
C3: Beat Peru 1-0
C5: Tied Denmark 0-0
R16: Beat 2D-Argentina 4-3
QF: Beat 1A-Uruguay 2-0
SF: Beat 1G-Belgium 1-0		   #20 | D3 | Group D Winners | 4-0-2
1st Finals (-)
 D2: Beat Nigeria 2-0
D3: Beat Argentina 3-0
D6: Beat Iceland 2-1
R16: Beat 2C-Denmark 1-1 (3-2 PSO)
QF: Beat 2A-Russia 2-2 (4-3 PSO)
SF: Beat 2G-England 2-1 (AET)

ENGLAND RUN ENDS IN EXTRA TIME; FRANCE HOLDS ON
Walleyewins the pool, BigRedSquare in money, but 5 vie for final two spots

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) -- For all the hype f bringing the Cup back home to 2G-England, tiny D1-Croatia's effort and heart won out in a 2-1 win after Extra Time.  ENG started strong and got a free kick goal, their 9th set piece goal, in the 5' but Croatia tied it in the second half to send it to extra time.  With ENG no longer afraid of the PSO and with CRO playing their third-straight extra time match, things looked good for the team that really isn't a country.  But then CRO's Mario Mandukic was in the right place for an opportunistic laser strike in the 109' to put CRO up for good.  It was CRO's second time scoring in Extra Time but this time their defense held down the stretch.  ENG only had one shot on goal (their free kick) though Harry Kane had a couple of point-blank opportunities (save then left post off the GK) on the same play and although ruled offsides, probably would've been overturned by VAR if he had actually scored.  CRO, the second smallest country to make the final and began play just in '96, advances to their first final while ENG is still overjoyed by the lads effort in this World Cup.

In the battle of giants, 1C-France (ranked #7) just needed Samuel Umtiti's header in the 51' to shut out G1-Belgium (ranked #3), who had led all teams with 14 goals.  FRA won their 4th one-goal match in reaching the final for the 3rd time.

So Croatia, wearing their great checkered jersey for the final, has allowed the opponent to score first in each of the three knockout matches and CRO have come back to tie twice (winning in the PSO) and win (ENG in AET), playing 120 minutes in each match.  They started off with the expected 2-0 win over NGA and then the surprising 3-0 win over ARG.  Having already qualified, they still managed to beat ISL 2-1 with a goal in the 90' to win Group D.  Will playing effectively 4 matches in 11 days and having one less day rest than FRA hurt too much?  Can they afford to allow FRA to score first like their last 3 matches?

So France, started off so suspiciously, barely beating AUS 2-1 and then struggled in their 1-0 win over PER.  Having already qualified, they and DEN played to the only scoreless draw in the tournament.  So was FRA for real?  We couldn't tell.  They won Group C scoring just four goals.  But then they played the 5th ranked team in the world, ARG, and after falling behind 2-1 in the second half, exploded with three goals and held on 4-3.  Then they beat URU 2-0 in another strong effort and tactically shut out high-scoring BEL.  FRA has not allowed a goal in 180' and they have an offense to boot.  This was the WC for FRA to implode, as they had missed the WC 94', won '98, fizzled in group stage '02, lost in final '06, mutiny and group stage struggle '10, and quarterfinals in '14.  So this is the second straight strong FRA WC performance.  FRA are heavy 1:2 favorites to win.

FRA's win was picked by 18 including Walleye who clinched winning the pool (110 pts) and the $345 prize.  No one picked CRO.  BigRedSquare (2nd-T, 107) is guaranteed at least 3rd place.  But the other two spots will be contested by Blitzkrieg813 (2nd-T), Bigblue2 (4th-T, 106), FernandoHierrosArmada (4th-T, 106), Sacre Les Bleus (13th-T, 101), and Sokkerbix (26th-T, 95).  Here is the prize breakdown (updated 7/13):

1st Place  : $355
2nd Place  : $190
3rd Place  : $125
4th Place  : $ 80
Bonus Prize: $ 40

Here are the final two scenarios for money:

If FRANCE beats CROATIA in the final, then the possible winners are...
                   Walleye Score: 124 (place 1 winner)
              BigRedSquare Score: 121 (place 2 winner)
           Sacre Les Blues Score: 115 (place 3 winner)
                 Sokkerbix Score: 109 (place 4 winner)
If CROATIA beats FRANCE in the final, then the possible winners are...
                   Walleye Score: 110 (place 1 winner)
              BigRedSquare Score: 107 (tiebreak: 4.5 | 2nd if <=5 | 3rd if >=6)
             Blitzkreig813 Score: 107 (tiebreak: 6.0 | 3rd if <=5 | 2nd if >=6)
                  Bigblue2 Score: 106 (tiebreak: 5.5 | 4th if <=5)
     FernandoHierrosArmada Score: 106 (tiebreak: 6.0 | 4th if >=6)

Here are the final two scenarios for the Bonus Prize (note: if CRO wins and total goals in 3rd place & final are 5 goals or less, then Bigblue2 will win 4th and be ineligible for Bonus): 

If FRANCE beats CROATIA in the final, then the possible winners are...
             Flying Elvi (tiebreak: 5.5 | Tied if <=6 | 3-way Tie if =7)
                Bigblue2 (tiebreak: 5.5 | Tied if <=6 | 3-way Tie if =7)
           Krispy Kremer (tiebreak: 8.5 | 3-way Tie if =7 | Wins if >=8)
If CROATIA beats FRANCE in the final, then the possible winners are...
             Flying Elvi (tiebreak: 5.5 | Wins if <=5 | Tied if =6 | 3-way Tie if =7)
                Bigblue2 (tiebreak: 5.5 | Tied if =6 | 3-way Tie if =7)
           Krispy Kremer (tiebreak: 8.5 | 3-way Tie if =7 | Wins if >=8)

BigRedSquare, Bigblue2, and Flying Elvi (6th, 105) will be hoping for low-scoring 3rd place and final matches to get better final placement.

Eric's "Foster's Football Brew", a HWCI EURO Pool staple, is back, already four issues in.  If anyone else wants to contribute, let me know.  Anyone else going to Russia and want to send pictures or mini-reports?

The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #hwciWC hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates.  Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every few days or so.

   SIDES 'N KICKS:  [62 Matches / 13 Ties] Goals: 161 (2.60/match) [Own: 11 (4-MARvIRN, 5-AUSvFRA, 8-NGAvCRO, 15-POLvSEN, 17-EGYvRUS, 33-RUSvURU,  42-SUIvCRC, 44-MEXvSWE, 46-TUNvPAN, 51-RUSvESP, 58-BRAvBEL), Subs (incl. Own): 13 (1-RUS 70', 4-MAR {og} 90'+5, 29-BEL 90', 30-ENG 78', 32-JPN 78', 35-IRN 90'+3, 36-MAR 81', 36-ESP 90'+1, 42-SUI 88', 50-ARG 90'+3, 54-BEL 74', 53-BRA 88', 54-BEL 90'+4, 58-BRA 76'),  Stoppage: 19 (1-RUS +1, 1-RUS +4, 4-IRN +5 {GW}, 14-ENG +1 {GW}, 23-CRO +1, 25-BRA +1 {GW}, 25-BRA +7, 27-GER +5 {GW}, 28-KOR +3, 29-TUN +3, 34-KSA +5 {GW}, 35-IRN +3 {GT}, 36-ESP +1 {GT}, 42-CRC +3 {GT}, 43-KOR +3 {GW}, 43-KOR +6, 50-ARG +3, 54-BEL +4 {GW}, 56-COL +3 {GT}), Extra Time: 3 (59-CRO 101', 59-RUS 115', 62-CRO 109')]... Scoring First: 43-6-12 (1 Nil-Nil ties [37-DENvFRA]; 26-SRB, 27-SWE, 34-EGY, 46-PAN, 54-JPN, 62-ENG)... Lead at Half: 19-4-4 (35 ties; 26-SRB, 27-SWE, 46-PAN, 62-ENG)... Shutout: 32 (1-KSA, 2-EGY, 4-MAR, 6-PER, 8-NGA, 10-CRC, 11-GER, 12-KOR, 13-PAN 18-KSA {2}, 19-MAR {2}, 20-IRN, 21-PER {2}, 23-ARG, 24-ISL, 25-CRC {2}, 31-POL, 33-RUS, 37-DEN, 37-FRA, 38-AUS, 41-SRB, 43-GER {2}, 44-MEX, 45-ENG, 47-JPN, 48-SEN, 53-MEX {2}, 55-SUI, 57-URU, 60-SWE, 61-BEL)... PK: 21/28 (3-POR, 5-AUS, 5-FRA, 6-per [H], 7-arg [S], 8-CRO, 12-SWE, 14-TUN, 16-JPN, 18-EGY, 22-AUS {2}, 24-isl [H], 28-MEX, 29-BEL, 30-ENG, 30-ENG {2}, 34-ksa [S], 34-KSA {2}, 35-por [S] {2}, 35-IRN, 39-NGA, 40-ISL, 42-crc [XB], 44-SWE {2}, 50-FRA {2}, 51-RUS, 52-cro [S], 56-ENG {3})... PSO: 4 (26/39) [51-ESP:RUS 4.5 (3:4 {GGsGs:GGGG}), 52-DEN:CRO 5.0 (2:3 {sGGss:sGGsG}), 56-COL:ENG 5.0 (3:4 {GGGxs:GGsGG}), 59-RUS:CRO 5.0 (3:4 {sGlGG:GsGGGG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 4 (2/2) [16-COL 3' {R} (1/1), 27-GER 82' {2Y} (1/0), 33-RUS 36' {2Y} (0/1), 55-SUI 90'+4 {R} (0/0)]... Multiples: 12 [Cheryshev 2 (1-RUS), Ronaldo 3 (3-POR), Costa 2 (3-ESP), Lukaku 2 (13-BEL), Kane 2 (14-ENG), Musa 2 (24-NGA), Lukaku 2 {2} (29-BEL), Hazard 2 (29-BEL), Stones 2 (30-ENG), Kane 3 {2} (30-ENG), Mbappe 2 (50-FRA), Cavani 2 (49-URU)]... Zero SOG (Shots): 4 [1-KSA (6), 12-KOR (5), 20-IRN (5), 25-CRC (4)]... Goal Line Tech (Award): 1 (5-FRA 81')... VAR: 19 (5-FRA PK+ 56', 6-PER PK+ 45', 12-SWE PK+ 63', 17-EGY PK+InBox 72', 20-IRN Off+ 62', 22-AUS PK+ 36', 25-BRA PK- 79', 24-ISL PK+ 80', 34-KSA PK+ 45'+2, 35-POR PK+ 50', 35-IRN PK+ 90'+1, 36-ESP Off- 90'+1, 39-NGA PK- 76', 42-CRC Off+ 90'+1, 43-KOR Off- 90'+3, 44-SWE PK- 29', 48-SEN PK- 17', 55-SWE PK- 90'+4, 58-BRA PK- 58')... 63%+ Poss: 13 [4-MARvIRN (63) L, 7-ARGvISL (73) T, 20-ESPvIRN (68) W, 25-BRAvCRC (69) W, 27-GERvSWE (71) W, 35-PORvIRN (68) T, 36-ESPvMAR (68) T, 39-ARGvNGA (65) W, 43-GERvKOR (70) L, 44-MEXvSWE (65) L, 46-TUNvPAN (64) W, 51-ESPvRUS (74) T-L, 55-SUIvSWE (64) L, 59-CROvRUS (64) T-W]... 25+ Shots: 5 [7-ARG (26vISL) D, 11-GER (25vMEX) L, 43-GER (26vKOR) L, 51-ESP (25vRUS) D-L, 58-BRA (26vBEL) L]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF/SF/F): UEFA (14/10/6/4/2) 29-16-17, CONMEBOL (5/4/2/-) 11-7-3, AFC (5/1/-) 4-9-3, CAF (5/-) 3-10-2, CONCACAF (3/1/-) 2-7-1, OCEANIA (-)... BEL had their 24-match undefeated streak snapped (Sept '16)... 5-AUS's, 14-TUN's, 17-EGY's, and 51-RUS's only shot on goal was their PK goal... FRA scored all 4 goals on 4 shots on goal against ARG and all 2 goals on 2 shots on goal vs URU... COL was the 11th team to score in stoppage time to tie or win the match... more than half the matches were tied at the half (35 of 62 (56.5%))... VAR corrected a mistaken identity 21-PER 81' and helped award two yellow cards (10-SRB YC+ 90'+8, 35-POR YC+ 83')... this is the 5th all-Euro semifinals (all five have been on European soil, the last in '06)... CRO is second team to win 2 PSOs in same WC (ARG '90) and 1st team to win 3 straight Extra Time/PSO matches... 70 of 161 goals (43.4%) have been off set-pieces... 32 of 161 goals have been headed in, most since '02 (35)... CRO coach Zlatko Dalic has only been on the job for 9 months (8-2-3)... CRO has scored in their last 10 WC matches ('06 vJPN)... CRO-ENG was 9th semifinal to go to Extra Time and just 4th to be decided in Extra Time...  ENG scored 9 of their 12 goals off set pieces; CRO has allowed 4 of their 5 goals off set pieces... ENG fell short in trying to own all three men's titles after winning U-17 and U-19 WCs last year... interestingly, CRO will face ENG twice later this year as they are in the same group of the UEFA Nations League (League A, Group 4), a new league to promote competitive matches and a chance to grab a EURO 2020 spot...  CRO, ranked 20th, is the worst team to make the final ('98 FRA #18)... there were 37 fouls in the CRO-ENG match (24-13)... Larzby clinched last when FRA won (68)... 19 went 0-for-the-Final-Four... ENG's only shot on goal was their free kick goal...

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Why did I do the Greatest Showman update before the Semis?  I knew England would falter so had to get ahead of the news cycle ;-)...
Scott

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