2006 HWCI World Cup Pool Update
* NOTE: No update on Saturday as I was in Eugene, Oregon

Monday, June 19, 2006 Issue # 5.1.3 "Late Goal Magic" [ Home | Standings | Results | Web Entry ]

LATE GOALS PROVIDE WINS AND INSURANCE
Paolo Rossi is one point from perfect

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) -- A4-Ecuador (2-0-0) continues its Cinderella run outplaying A2-Costa Rica (0-2-0), 3-0, and advanced both itself and A1-GER to the Round of 16. ECU leads by GD so GER would have to beat ECU to win Group A. B1-England (2-0-0) had another lackluster game but they at least scored a goal by themselves, beating 1000:1 B3-Trindad & Tobago (0-1-1), 2-0, with a couple of late goals. B4-Sweden (1-0-1) got a late goal to finally put away B2-Paraguay (0-2-0), 1-0. SWE's win sent ENG into the Round of 16 while SWE controls its destiny and a win over ENG would make them the Group B winners.

Playing with fire and as a team to beat, C1-Argentina (2-0-0) demolished C3-Serbia & Montenegro (0-2-0), 6-0, in a supposed Group of Death match. Although playing with 10 minutes for most of the second half, after ARG jumped to the early lead, SCG lost their will worse than the USA did and ARG exploited that at every opportunity. C4-Netherlands (2-0-0) held off a pesky C2-Ivory Coast (0-2-0), 2-1. Who would've thought the Group of Death would find its two R16 teams after just four matches? ARG just needs a tie v NED to win the group. D3-Angola (0-1-1) surprised D1-Mexico (1-0-1) with a scoreless draw.

The next day, D4-Portugal (2-0-0) took care of D2-Iran (0-2-0) putting themselves into the R16 and eliminating IRN. MEX will face POR and still can win the group with a win. In a shocker, E4-Ghana (1-1-0) outplayed E2-Czech Republic (1-1-0) to a 2-0 win sending Group E into disarray. The D4-USA (0-1-1) came back from their humiliating defeat to CZE to tie D1-Italy (1-0-1), 1-1, despite ITA playing with a 10-on-9 advantage (and a ref advantage, imagine that) for all but 2 minutes of the 2nd half. The USA continued to press after getting an own goal to tie the game and didn't let up until they started playing for a tie at around the 80th minute mark. That's when ITA started controlling possession and had some good opportunities to score but it was too little to late. Now all but the USA could win Group E and all four have a chance to advance.

CRO's Darijo SRNA missed a PK as F2-Croatia (0-1-1) and F4-Japan (0-1-1) battled the heat and themselves for a 0:0 tie. F1-Brazil (2-0-0), in some weird cruise control mode, "flaired" and "flailed" around to a 2-0 victory over F3-Australia (1-1-0), sending BRA to their 10th straight R16 (last failing to qualify in 1966). AUS can qualify with a win or a tie v CRO unless JPN pulls off a major 2-goal upset of BRA. G1-France (0-0-2) continues to struggle but they did score a goal (1st in last 5 WC matches covering 369 minutes) but G3-Korea Republic (1-0-1) used a late equalizer to keep their hold on first in Group G with SUI-TOG to come tomorrow.

G2-Switzerland (1-0-1) got an important insurance goal in the 88th minute to beat G4-Togo (0-2-0) 2-0. That 2nd goal was important because that gives them the GD tiebreaker over KOR if those teams tie or if there's a 3-way tie for first, SUI at least gets the 2nd spot. FRA will need help but can still win the Group. KOR can't afford the tie v SUI just in case FRA has a convincing victory over eliminated TOG. In Group H action, H2-Ukraine (1-1-0) bounced back with vengeance to whip H4-Saudi Arabia (0-1-1), 4-0, to put their GD back to zero. H1-Spain (2-0-0) fell behind early but exploded for three goals after the 70th minute to put away H3-Tunisia (0-1-1). ESP becomes the 8th team to advance to the R16 which leaves 17 teams vying for the remaining 8 spots.

All in all, the 16 second game matches saw 14 of the 36 goals scored after the 80th minute. That's 39% of the goals scored in the last 11% of the match and included 4 game-winners and one game-tying goal six other goals that put a one-goal game out of reach.

As for the pool, we are giving credit for correct R16 teams as they qualify (where as in the past two pools, we credited everyone after all 48 round-robin games were played). Remember, it doesn't matter if you picked the team to finish 1st or 2nd, just that you picked them to make the R16. The consequences of not exactly picking them 1st or 2nd will come later as the bracket plays out. Right now, everything is going according to FIFA's plan with the exception of ECU's R16 advancement over POL and top seed FRA's struggles (though maybe that was planned).

And thus, PAOLO ROSSI is almost perfect (missing the CZE win over USA, but who can blame him for that?) with 48 of a possible 49 points. He is on a 16-match winning streak which matches MIKE ON THE MIKE's (4th-Tied, 44 pts) 16-match winning streak which was snapped with GHA's win over CZE. SOURCE is right behind with 47 pts with SWEET LOU at 46. Six have picked all 8 R16 teams thus far which has propelled SALSAKING (44) from a tie for 38th after 16 matches to a tie for 4th after 32 matches. CHERUNDOLO (38) has taken the furthest fall, going from a tie for 1st to a tie for 36th. MIREAL's blind strategy may have worked if it was done in 2002, but for 2006, it spells disaster as she sits dead last with 10 pts and just 1 of the 8 R16 teams. That protects THE CAT (43rd, 33) from being in last place.

In the split or upset matches, about half (21 of 44) picked ECU while 30 chose SWE and UKR. Only 7 foresaw GHA's stopping of CZE and was the only true upset of the 2nd batch of matches. The 3rd batch of matches should be interesting (unless there are a lot of ties) as only GER, ENG, PAR, USA, BRA, FRA, and ESP were picked by 34 or more entries.

With 44 entries, the pot stands at $440. The prize breakdown will be as follows:

OK, just kidding. 1st place is only $7. No, no, no. The $440 will be split as follows:

The $220 easily tops our 1998 top prize of $115. The 2nd place prize matched our $110 top prize in 2002. Of course this is a far cry from our $415 top prize for this year's NCAA pool, but this is still impressive for a sport where you have to go searching for radio or TV news on the World Cup.

USA WC 1990-2006: All-time Round Robin (2-9-3); overall (3-10-2\3)... U.S. record when opponent scores in 1st half (0-9-2)... when U.S. doesn't score in the 1st half (0-10-0)... team who has scored in the first 40 minutes (11-0-1) - USA-ITA first game where both teams scored in first 40 minutes and thus does not count... vs. European teams in Europe (0-6-1) (0-8-1 all-time in WC)... vs. any team in Europe (0-7-1)

WC STATS: 32 matches (7 ties)... 75 goals (2.34 per game)... 10 Red Cards (4-TRI, 14-TOG, 15-UKR, 17-POL, 21-SCG, 22-ANG, 25-ITA, 25-USA(2), 26-CZE); team with advantage (9 goals, 0 against)... 5 PKs (3/5) (15-ESP (G), 24-POR (G), 26-GHA (LP), 28-CRO (S), 31-ESP (G))... Scoring first: 22-3-3 (12-JPN, 14-TOG, 31-TUN)... Shutouts: 26 (4 0:0 ties)... Leading at the half: 16-3-2 (12-JPN, 14-TOG, 31-TUN)... Both teams scoring in the first half: 4 (1-GER-CRC 2:1, 7-MEX-IRN 1:1, 25-ITA-USA 1:1, 22-NED-CIV 2:1)... Own goals: 2 (3-PAR, 25-ITA)

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Now the exciting part- 4 games a day for 4 days...
Scott


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