The 17th HWCI NCAA Tournament Pool

HW Basketball Logo 2011 HWCI NCAA Pool Update
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Issue # 11.5.2 "Where are 1 and 2?" 
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UNDERDOGS RULE AS VCU WINS # 5
Twelve in a race to capture six spots

CERRITOS, CA (smt)-  #1SW-Kansas had it made to the Final.  They played a #16, #9, and #12 seed and faced a #11 seed with #8 Butler next.  Not to be.  #11SE-Virginia Commonwealth, at-large play-in winner, hit 12 threes en route to a shocking and dominating 71-61 victory over the last remaining #1 seed.  VCU had a 43-27 lead right after halftime but Kansas scored the next 12 points that included a technical foul on the young VCU coach.  But Kansas made just one of the two free throws and overall hit just 15 of 28 to play a part in their doom (as well as 2/21 on threes).  VCU is the first team to win 5 games and the third double-digit seed (all have been 11s) to get to the Final Four.  So we have a mid-major matchup in the Final Four with either Horizon League Butler or Colonial Athletic Assoc. VCU making the final.

In a matchup of traditional powers, #4E-Kentucky and #2E-North Carolina battled and battled, but it was the Wildcats penchant for threes, hitting 12 of 22, that propelled them into the Final Four with a 76-69 victory.  Kentucky had a 65-57 lead but UNC scored 10 of the next 12 to tie it.  So two of the five teams (#3W-UConn) who have won two titles during our pool will face each other in the semifinals.

In the pool, Kansas was picked by 84 and their loss basically will make this pool the lowest scoring ever and because of that, one of the closest ever as 33 have between 89 and 99 points.  While no one envisioned VCU making it past the 2nd Round, 11 picked Kentucky.  Chas Croix1 (28th-Tied, 90) and Pack Rat (48th-T, 86) were the only ones to get 2 of the Final Four teams but only Pack Rat still has a chance to win money.  A record 94 went 0-for-the-Final-Four and more than half (150) of the 282 to ever go 0-for-the-Final-Four in the past two years.  Craig is one of those but still leads with 106 points because no one else has been able to pick up points on him.  But he only has a 50% chance to win first with three others chasing him.  There are twelve people still alive and in 2 of the 8 Final Four scenarios, 9 of the 12 will battle tiebreakers in the final game for the six money spots.

As for the Bonus, the Big East will win the Winningest Conference with either 11, 12, or 13 wins.  This means if UConn loses Saturday, Real Sporting FC (52nd-T, 84) will win the $40 Bonus.  If UConn loses in the Final, then BamaG 2 (69th-T, 81), Cally 2 Stiff (103rd-T, 74), or Cally 2 Tough (52nd-T) (Matt C will have 2 chances!) could win the Bonus.  If UConn wins it all, then For Narnia (118th-T, 69) or Buzzer Beaters (14th-T, 95) will win the Bonus.

   Tids & Bits -  The Mighty Mobelfakta (2nd-T, 99) was the last of the 10 entries who started out the round with 3 Final Four teams alive to end with just one correct... UNC has won its last 10 Sweet Sixteen matches and in those have gone on to win 8 of 9 Elite 8 games - but not this time... the odds show Kentucky as the favorite with 8:5 odds (12:1 entering tourney) with UConn (2:1, 25:1) next; Butler (19:5, 150:1) and VCU (13:2, 175:1) still get no respect... the 0.26 win average for the Elite 8 shattered the record low set in '06 (0.58), the last time no #1 seeds made the Final Four...

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Go Butler!
...

Scott
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