The 14th HWCI NCAA Tournament Pool

HW Basketball Logo 2008 HWCI NCAA Pool Update
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Issue # 6.2.2 "Two Two-Seeds Two-Step Out of Trouble"
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THREE DOUBLE-DIGIT SEEDS ADVANCE TO SWEET 16
Wanna Fly?  Flyin' Hawaiian on top with Flying Ace tied for 2nd 

CERRITOS, CA (smt)- Three two-seeds and a one-seed went from a comfortable win to a nail biter but all survived (#2S-Texas, #2E-Tennessee (OT), #1S-Memphis) except for #2MW-Georgetown.  All had double-digit second half leads (Texas & Georgetown 17 pts, Memphis 13, Tenn 10) that whittled to at most two in regulation thanks to some poor free throw shooting.  #10MW-Davidson's shocker of the Hoyas and both #12 seeds (MW-Villanova, W-Western Kentucky) beating #13 seeds put three double-digit seeds into the Sweet 16.  Only #1MW-UNC cruised, once again scoring 100+ points (108).

FLYIN' HAWAIIAN was one of ten to go 6-2 for the day to take over sole possession of first place with 88 pts.  FLYING ACE and CUSTARD_PIE are tied for 2nd with 85 pts.  Overall, 7 entries went 12-4 for the 2nd round.   3CROWINGBUGS (99th-Tied, 62 pts), BIGRED (67th-T, 72), and QUICKPICK MCGRAW (who set a record for lowest points after two rounds with 42 after going 4-12 for the 2nd round) went 3-5 today.  QUEENB (67th-T, 72) was the only one to pick Western Kentucky while 7 each got Villanova and Davidson.  Of course none of this matters unless you aren't eliminated.  WOKIM (75), in first before the 2nd round began, now sits tied for 44th with no chance for 1st or 2nd.  That's how quickly things can change.  DC944 and BRACKET BUSTER moved from a tie for 27th to a tie for 6th (82 pts) in one round.

After 2 rounds, there are 32,768 possible outcomesFLYIN' HAWAIIAN has 17,329 possibilities to finish 1st through 5th (money spots), 52.9%.  On the flip side, yours truly, THE FABONE 14 (Scott T) has just one possibility to finish in the money (and that's for 5th place).  Yes, one.  In the history of the pool, there has never been an entry with exactly a 1 in 32,768 chance to finish in the money.  That's a 0.003% chance.  Still higher than winning the Super Lotto, I guess.  Scott T does extend his streak to 14 straight years where he has not been eliminated after two rounds.  Can't say that for 13 entries, who will now be playing for the Bonus Prize (explained tomorrow).  That still leaves 88 in the running for some money with 55 of those with still a sliver of hope for 1st.  The prize breakdown (featuring a brand new 5th place prize) will also be announced tomorrow.  FLYING ACE is the only other entry with a greater than 50% chance for money (no one else is higher than 28%) with FLYIN' HAWAIIAN having the highest 1st place chance at 21.9%.

Knowing these possibilities, you get some interesting results.  JOHNNY APPLEHIGHSEEDS (81), which is based on picking the highest seed, is tied for 10th place but can't finish higher than 3rd because his remaining Elite 8 matches two others ahead of him (by a single point, no less).  The other side of the coin shows that FABIO (63), tied for 97th, can still win 3rd and SAMER-2 (67), tied for 90th, can still win 1st.  THE UNFORTUNATE TRUTH (61st-T, 73) has the highest point total for an eliminated entry.

Notes / Merkt:  Only two (DR. FUN (44th-T, 75) and FLYING ACE) still have their Elite 8 intact while 54 still have their Final Four alive... no one's champion was eliminated today with a loss... QUICKPICK MCGRAW and CHUCKIE D (86th-T, 69) only have one Final Four team remaining... 99 entries each picked Memphis and UNC while 98 picked Texas; yesterday, 100 each picked Kansas and UCLA... Jake P had the worst day, having 2 of his 3 entries eliminated with a 3rd that can't finish higher than 3rd...

The latest daily pool information can be found on the official site: http://www.HWCI.com/ncaa and on our blog at http://www.HWCI.com/wordpress.

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One in 32,768????  So you're saying there's still a chance...

Scott


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