The 13th HWCI NCAA Tournament Pool

HW Basketball Logo 2007 HWCI NCAA Pool Update
Friday, March 23, 2007 [Rev A]
Issue # 10.3.2 "Fast Starts Fizzle"
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JUMP TO A LEAD AND LOSE
Van&Sam jump to top of standings as one of 4 to go undefeated in Sweet 16

CERRITOS, CA (smt)- #5MW-Butler jumped to a 27-18 lead but then went 10:50 without a field goal as #1MW-Florida held on, 65-57.  #6E-Vandy ran to a 27-14 lead but #2E-Georgetown's Jeff Green hit a tough bank with 2.5 seconds left to win it 66-65.  #5E-USC blazed to a 18-7 lead and a 53-45 lead in the second half (leading by as much as 18), only to see #1E-UNC later go on a 18-0 run en route to a come from behind 74-64 win.  Only #3MW-Oregon didn't jump out to a big lead, its biggest lead was just six in the first half, and withstood a crazy comeback by #7MW-UNLV to become the Pac-10's second team in the Elite 8 winning 76-72.  All eight higher seeded teams won in the Sweet 16.

Wow.  Lots of long stretches without a field goal today.  UNC went 6:53 without a FG (0/11) and USC went 8:12 (0/8) in the same game.  Butler went 10:50 without a basket (0/9), Georgetown went basketless for 6:29 (0/7), and Oregon went the last 5:25 without a FG (0/1) and missing 5 of their last 11 free throws in that stretch. 

I must be watching way too many LeBron James moves because it didn't look like traveling (which was not called) by Green and he still had to make a tough shot.  And I think Vandy not using a timeout was good, except that the inbound pass was too short with 2.5 seconds left.  If you have a chance to come back quickly after a basket, that's good to do before the defense can set.  USC's Taj Gibson meant more to that team than just about anyone else in the tourney and his fourth foul with 12:25 left was the catalyst for UNC's eventual 18-0 run. And his coach (Tim Floyd) losing it with a technical with less than a minute left was irresponsible.  Oregon scores in bunches and was 13/23 from 3-pt range and Tajuan Porter was nearly unstoppable with 33 pts.

So can all # 1 seeds make it to the Final Four?  Kansas can't make its free throws, Florida doesn't start playing til the second half, and UNC & Ohio St. fall to double-digit deficits in the second half.  Sure thing.

Seventeen entries went 4-0 today give four entries a perfect Elite 8 (VAN&SAM (1st, 126 pts), GO 9ERS! (4th-Tied, 118), TROUBLE BRUIN (6th-T, 116), and MAD MAN (17th-T, 110; up from 34th-T yesterday and 57th-T before the Elite 8) joining JAYBIAN (1996) as the only 8-0 entries.  While at least 60 picked the #1/#2 seeds, 41 picked #3 Oregon.  For the first time, DC944 (121) is not at the top of the standings and sits in 3rd and can't finish higher than 2nd!  THAI SPICE (125) slips to 2nd.  VAN&SAM set a new record with 126 pts after 3 rounds (previously 118 by JAYBIAN in 1996) and the group's average of 5.66 wins also set a new record (previously 5.37 in 1996).  VAN&SAM and THAI SPICE also set a record with 49 wins with seven games left (48 in 2006 by JAYBAIN).  Thirty-nine entries still have their Final Four intact.  With seven games left, the average of all 98 entries has topped 100 points (102.0) which is a nice bounce from last year's all-time low of 90.8 pts.

Seven entries went just 1-3 and three got just 3 of the 8 Elite 8 teams correct.  After getting 12 of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct, BUCKEYE23 (72nd, 98 (was 32nd-T before the Elite 8)) got himself eliminated by getting just 4 of 8 Elite 8 teams.  THE BUS DRIVER (108) has made his last stop despite being tied for 27th place.  But 48 entries still have a chance to finish in the top 4 and twenty can still win first.  THAI SPICE (22.7% 1st, 51.6% Money) and VAN&SAM (19.5%, 46.9%) are still in a comfortable position to win something but with 7 of the top 8 seeds remaining, they can't rely on "upsets" to secure their position at the top.

If anyone wants to know their exact possible outcomes that would win them money, please post it in the Discussion Board.  Here are my (BAKER'S FABONE (9th-T, 114)) possible winning outcomes out of 128 total possibilities.

In the race for the Bonus1, there are just 32 left in the running.  The Pac-10 is the only conference with more than one team in the Elite 8.

         Teams   Curr   Max Poss
 Conf.   Left    Wins    Wins
 ------  ----    ----   --------

 Pac10    2       9       13
 SEC      1       8       11
 ACC      1       7       10
 Big10    1       7       10
 BigEast  1       6        9
 Big12    1       6        9

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What a boring tourney!...
Scott


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